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PART VI. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE FORWARD AND THE FUTURE SPOT RATE

PART VI. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE FORWARD AND THE FUTURE SPOT RATE

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PART VI. CURRENCYFORECASTING

I. FORECASTING MODELS

A. Created to forecast exchange

rates in addition to parity

conditions.

B. Two types of forecast:

1. Market-based

2. Model-based



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CURRENCY FORECASTING

MARKET-BASED FORECASTS:

derived from market indicators.

A. The current forward rate contains

implicit information about exchange

rate changes

for one year.

B. Interest rate differentials may be

used to predict exchange rates

beyond one year.

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CURRENCY FORECASTING

MODEL-BASED FORECASTS:

include fundamental and technical

analysis.

A. Fundamental relies on key

macroeconomic variables and

policies which most like affect

exchange rates.

B. Technical relies on use of

1. Historical volume and price data

2. Charting and trend analysis

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PART VI. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE FORWARD AND THE FUTURE SPOT RATE

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