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PART II. ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL FACTORS

PART II. ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL FACTORS

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ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL

FACTORS



D. Resource Base

-lack of strong work ethic

E. Country Risk and Adjustment to

External Shocks

1.

What are the impacts of

external shocks:

-how well a nation responds

varies

10



ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL

FACTORS

2.



Key Indicators of Country Risk

a. Relative size of government

debt

b. Money expansion

c. Existence of governmentimposed barriers to market

forces

11



ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL

FACTORS



2. Key Indicators of Country Risk

(con’t)

d. Level of tax rates

e. Amount of government-owned

firms

f. Political and fiscal responsibility

g. Amount and extent of

corruption

12



ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL

FACTORS

Key indicators of economic health

a.

Structural incentives

b.

Legal structure

c.

Clear incentives to save

d.

Open economy

e.

Stable macroeconomic

policies

13



PART III. COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS

IN INTERNATIONAL BANKING

I.



Country Risk and the Terms of

Trade

What ultimately determines a

nation’s ability to repay foreign

loans?

- the speed of adjustment

14



COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS IN

INTERNATIONAL BANKING

II.



The Government’s Cost/Benefit

Calculus

- debt to wealth ratio

- cost of default

- fluctuations in the terms

of

trade

15



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PART II. ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL FACTORS

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