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2 Vietnam’s agricultural trade competitiveness by the RTA

2 Vietnam’s agricultural trade competitiveness by the RTA

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Table 4-7: Vietnam’s top agricultural competitiveness by the RTA

No.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27



Code

246

075

042

231

071

037

036

034

265

074

057

035

054

046

245

058

122

411

062

056

061

059

112

223

047

421

017



Commodity

Wood in chips, particles

Spices

Rice

Natural rubber, etc.

Coffee,coffee substitute

Fish etc.prepd,prsvd.nes

Crustaceans,molluscs etc

Fish,fresh,chilled,frozn

Vegetable textile fibres

Tea and mate

Fruit,nuts excl.oil nuts

Fish,dried,salted,smoked

Vegetables

Meal,flour of wheat,msln

Fuel wood, wood charcoal

Fruit,preserved,prepared

Tobacco, manufactured

Animal oils and fats

Sugar confectionery

Vegtables,prpd,prsvd,nes

Sugars,molasses,honey

Fruit, vegetable juices

Alcoholic beverages

Oilseed(oth.fix.veg.oil)

Other cereal meal,flours

Fixed veg.fat,oils, soft

Meat,offl.prpd,prsvd,nes

Max

Average

Competitive groups



RTA

(1997)

5.04

22.22

82.34

19.65

18.86

6.87

22.59

2.69

3.93

11.52

2.42

3.94

1.26

-14.80

6.31

5.69

0.05

-0.12

-0.12

0.86

-0.51

-0.02

-0.07

0.16

-0.39

-0.29

0.40



RTA

(2014)

21.79

19.27

15.85

13.02

12.47

9.64

8.62

4.57

4.11

3.52

2.24

1.40

1.37

1.22

1.06

0.97

0.82

0.57

0.43

0.29

0.26

0.18

0.15

0.14

0.09

0.04

0.02

21.79

1.22

27.00



RTA

(1997-2014)

12.03

19.73

44.99

18.70

18.90

5.98

25.72

6.08

5.13

7.33

3.00

4.83

1.07

-3.42

3.98

1.81

0.27

0.19

0.16

0.41

-0.34

0.18

-0.01

2.26

-0.60

-0.73

0.06

44.99

2.24

28.00



Source: Own calculation based on the data of UN Comtrade (2017)

4.2.2 Analyzing the dynamics of the RTA indicators

The changes of the RTA indicators between 1997 and 2014

The variation of the RTA values between 1997 and 2014 shows Vietnam’s changes

in positions of competitive advantages. There are 33 competitive agricultural sectors in

1997 and only 27 competitive agricultural sectors in 2014. The country obtains the

increase of the competitive advantages in 22 agricultural sectors but losses the decrease

of the competitive advantages in 39 agricultural sectors.



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The top increasing agricultural sectors are wood in chips; meal, flour of wheat; and

fish etc. prepared, preserved. The top decreasing agricultural sectors are rice;

crustaceans, molluscs; and cotton. Notably, crude animal material; eggs, birds, yolks;

jute, other textile bast fibres; oil-seeds, soft fixed vegetable oils; and edible products and

preparations move from strong competitive advantages class to competitive

disadvantages class (Table 4-8).

Table 4-8: The changes of the RTA indicator ranks between 1997 and 2014

Top Increase

Wood in chips,particles

Meal,flour of wheat

Fish,etc.prepd,prsvd.nes

Animal,veg.fats,oils,nes

Tobacco



Top Decrease

Rice

Crustaceans,molluscs

Cotton

Crude animal materls

Tea and mate



Strong to Weak

Fuel wood, wood charcoal

Fruit,preserved,prepared

Fish,dried,salted,smoked



Strong to No

Crude,animal,material

Eggs,birds,yolks

Jute,oth.textl.bast fibre

Oilseed(sft.fix veg.oil)

Edible,prod.preprtns,nes



Source: Own calculation based on the data of UN Comtrade (2017)

The general pattern of the RTA indicators by the OLS method

The estimation for the RTA indicators over three periods results in the values of 0 <

β < 1 and values of β/R < 1 (Table 4-9). The results indicate that Vietnam, in general,

has the convergent pattern in the agricultural competitiveness by the RTA. In other

words, the country loses the competitiveness in the initial strong competitive

agricultural sectors whilst it gains the competitive advantage in the initial weak

competitive agricultural sectors. The values of 0 < β < 1 also prove the process of despecialization in Vietnam’s agricultural export competitiveness. This result and the

possible explanation for the result are similar to those of the RSCA (or RCA).

Table 4-9: The OLS estimation results for the RTA indicators over three periods

β

0.72



1997 - 2005

R

0.88



β/R

0.82



β

0.52



2006-2014

R

0.81



β/R

0.65



β

0.29



1997 - 2014

R

0.63



β/R

0.46



Source: Own calculation based on the data of UN Comtrade (2017)

The mobility and stability of the RTA indicators by Markov matrix

The RTA values are classified into four groups including competitive disadvantage,

weak competitive advantage, medium competitive advantage, and strong competitive



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advantage. The boundary of competitive and uncompetitive groups is remained (the

RTA neutral value is 0) and the authors then divide the RTA values into 3 classes of

weak, medium and strong advantages by quartile method (Table 4-10). Let 𝑝𝑖𝑗 (i, j = 1,

2, 3, 4) denotes a one-step transition probability, that is the transition probability for the

agricultural sectors which are in class “i” of year “t” moving to class “j” of year “t+1”.

The stability and mobility of the RTA values are investigated by using the Markov

transition probability matrix and mobility index for yearly values of the RTA indicators

from 1997 to 2014. The diagonal elements of the Markov matrix show the probability of

remaining persistently in the initial class. The other elements of the Markov transition

probability matrix provide further information on the mobility of the RTA values.

Specifically, they show the probabilities of moving from one class to another from the

year “t” to the year “t+1”. There is a 4x4 matrix with 1,037 observations.

Table 4-10: The classification of the RTA values and the interpretations

Categories

Class 1

Class 2

Class 3

Class 4



Interpretation

Non-competitiveness

Weak competitiveness

Medium competitiveness

Strong competitiveness



RTA values

≤0

≤ 1.41

≤ 7.48

> 7.48



Source: Own calculation based on the data of UN Comtrade (2017)

The result indicates that the high probabilities of the RTA values remain in their

initial class (high diagonal elements) in which the uncompetitive sectors (in class 1) and

the strongly competitive sectors (in class 4) maintain the highest probabilities and the

most persistent. In other words, the groups with initial non-competitiveness seem to stay

uncompetitive whilst the groups with initial strong competitiveness maintain to be

strongly competitive. The average probability of stability in initial class is 84.07 percent

whilst the average probability of mobility to other classes is only 5.31 percent. There is

no sector moving from class 4 backwards class 1 and class 2, and from class 2 forward

class 4. The probabilities of closer moves are higher than the probabilities of longer



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moves between classes. M-Shorrocks of 0.21, generally, presents a relatively low degree

of mobility between classes in the matrix (Table 4-11).

Table 4-11 also presents total probability (empirical ergodic) distribution and long

run probability (implied ergodic) distribution. The total run and the long run

distributions are relatively similar and this means that the Markov matrix accurately

captures the underlying distribution of the RTA indicators (Hinloopen and Marrewijk,

2001). The difference between total run and long run probabilities confirms that the

shares of uncompetitive and weak competitive sectors increase whilst the medium and

strong competitive sectors decline in the long future.

Table 4-11: The M-Shorrocks and Markov transition matrix for the RTA values

M-Shorrocks

0.21

Average stability

84.07

Average mobility

5.31



Obs.: 1,037

Class 1

Class 2

Class 3

Class 4

Total

Long run



Class 1

91.94

18.14

6.56

0

54.39

58.70



Class 2

6.99

78.06

12.3

0

23.05

23.55



Class 3

0.9

3.8

73.77

7.5

10.9

8.19



Class 4

0.18

0

7.38

92.5

11.67

9.56



Source: Own calculation based on the data of UN Comtrade (2017)

The trends of the RTA indicators

The result of the RTA indicator trend analysis during the period of 1997–2014

shows that Vietnam has the RTA gaining trends in 12 agricultural sectors with β > 0

whilst the country incurs the RTA losing trends in 28 agricultural sectors with β < 0.

Vietnam achieves the most RTA growing trends in wood in chips; meal, flour of wheat;

fish.prepared, preserved; vegetable textile fibres; and fish, fresh, chilled, frozen during

this period. This suggests that the country continues to obtain the stronger competitive

advantage in these agricultural sectors in the future. During the same period, Vietnam

has the most RTA losing trends in rice; crustaceans, molluscs; coffee, coffee substitute;

natural rubber; and tea and mate. The country will continue to incur the weaker

competitive advantage in these agricultural sectors in the future (Table 4-12).



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Table 4-12: The top gaining and losing trends of the RTA indicators

Code

246

046

037

265

034

122

411

035

075

263

291

074

231

071

036

042



Commodity

Wood in chips, particles

Meal,flour of wheat,msln

Fish etc.prepd,prsvd.nes

Vegetable textile fibres

Fish,fresh,chilled,frozn

Tobacco, manufactured

Animal oils and fats

Fish,dried,salted,smoked

Spices

Cotton

Crude animal materls.nes

Tea and mate

Natural rubber, etc.

Coffee,coffee substitute

Crustaceans,molluscs etc

Rice

Gaining trend sectors

Losing trend sectors



β

1.50

0.99

0.43

0.31

0.29

0.17

0.12

-0.29

-0.31

-0.31

-0.32

-0.40

-0.45

-0.47

-1.53

-3.03

12

28



p-value

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.02

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.03

0.06

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00





0.88

0.62

0.67

0.28

0.36

0.54

0.61

0.27

0.21

0.55

0.83

0.77

0.37

0.32

0.57

0.78



Source: Own calculation based on the data of UN Comtrade (2017)

4.3 Vietnam’s agricultural trade competitiveness by the NRCA

4.3.1 Measuring the static competitiveness

The result in Table 4-13 shows that, in 2014, Vietnam obtains 19 competitive sectors

with the strongest competitive advantages in coffee,coffee substitute; rice;

crustaceans,molluscs; fish,fresh,chilled,frozen, and fish etc.prepd,prsvd; fruit,nuts

excl.oil nuts; natural rubber, etc. with the NRCA values of 1.76, 1.48, 1.45, 1.18, 0.96,

0.94, 0.83, respectively, while alcoholic beverages; other meat, meat offal; oilseed are

the weakest competitive sectors with the NRCA values of -0.34, -0.31, -0.26,

respectively. The results in 2014 are slightly different to those in 1997 and in the

average values of 1997-2014. There are 22 competitive sectors in 1997 and in the

average with the strongest competitiveness in rice in 1997 and in crustaceans,molluscs.

Based on the classification the NRCA values into four classes by quartile method

(Table 4-16), Vietnam, in 2014, has nine strong competitive sectors (NRCA values >

0.48), two medium competitive sectors (0.48 ≥ NRCA values > 0.07), and eight weak



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competitive sectors (0.07 ≥ NRCA values > 0). These results, in general, are different to

those of the RCA and the RTA indices.

Table 4-13: Vietnam’s top agricultural trade competitiveness by the NRCA

No.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27



Code

071

042

036

034

037

057

231

075

246

054

074

265

035

046

411

058

245

062

264

244

261

047

122

223

061

045

212



Commodity

Coffee,coffee substitute

Rice

Crustaceans,molluscs etc

Fish,fresh,chilled,frozn

Fish etc.prepd,prsvd.nes

Fruit,nuts excl.oil nuts

Natural rubber, etc.

Spices

Wood in chips, particles

Vegetables

Tea and mate

Vegetable textile fibres

Fish,dried,salted,smoked

Meal,flour of wheat,msln

Animal oils and fats

Fruit,preserved,prepared

Fuel wood, wood charcoal

Sugar confectionery

Jute,oth.textl.bast fibr

Cork, natural, raw; waste

Silk

Other cereal meal,flours

Tobacco, manufactured

Oilseed(oth.fix.veg.oil)

Sugars,molasses,honey

Other cereals, unmilled

Furskins, raw

Max

Average

Competitive sectors



NRCA

(1997)

0.88

1.61

0.98

0.11

0.18

0.14

0.34

0.15

0.02

0.02

0.08

0.00

0.03

-0.01

-0.01

0.09

0.01

-0.01

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.00

-0.06

0.00

-0.03

0.00

0.00

1.61

0.07

22.00



NRCA

(2014)



NRCA

(1997-2014)



1.76

1.48

1.45

1.18

0.96

0.94

0.83

0.68

0.57

0.26

0.09

0.02

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.02

-0.02

-0.02

1.76

0.11

19.00



1.08

1.49

1.50

0.72

0.32

0.48

0.73

0.27

0.17

0.06

0.09

0.01

0.05

0.00

0.00

0.02

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.01

-0.02

-0.01

-0.01

1.50

0.09

22.00



Source: Own calculation based on the data of UN Comtrade (2017)

Vietnam, in overall, obtains strong comparative advantages in fishery sectors such as

fish and crustaceans; and crop sectors such as rice, coffee, tea, spices, fruit & nuts, and

vegetables whilst it has comparative disadvantage in livestock sectors such as live



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