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Báo cáo của Cục trồng trọt tại Hội nghị Quốc tế về cacao Việt Nam ngày 13/12/2011.

Báo cáo của Cục trồng trọt tại Hội nghị Quốc tế về cacao Việt Nam ngày 13/12/2011.

Tải bản đầy đủ - 0trang

PHỤ LỤC

PHỤ LỤC 1: MỘT SỐ HÌNH ẢNH CACAO UTZ



Cacao giống



Cacao thời kỳ kinh doanh



Cacao thu hoạch



Thu mua cacao



PHỤ LỤC 2: KẾT XUẤT MÔ HÌNH HÀM NĂNG SUẤT



Dependent Variable: LOG(NS)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 07/02/13 Time: 15:33

Sample: 1 50

Included observations: 50

Variable



Coefficient



Std. Error



t-Statistic



Prob.



C

LOG(MDCC)

LOG(MDD)

LOG(PHAN)

LOG(THUOC)

LOG(NUOC)

LOG(LD)

LOG(TCC)

LOG(TD)

LOG(KT)

MH



1.688789

0.415998

0.246686

0.320121

0.032764

0.181882

-0.933926

-0.012588

-0.346189

0.204983

0.830113



0.893261

0.114227

0.061841

0.139137

0.077012

0.069478

0.242031

0.155815

0.119932

0.064044

0.098887



1.890589

3.641867

3.989048

2.300768

0.425444

2.617857

-3.858698

-0.080789

-2.886547

3.200649

8.394531



0.0661

0.0008

0.0003

0.0268

0.6729

0.0125

0.0004

0.9360

0.0063

0.0027

0.0000



R-squared

Adjusted R-squared

S.E. of regression

Sum squared resid

Log likelihood

Durbin-Watson stat



0.817605

0.770837

0.167214

1.090465

24.68853

2.143191



Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var

Akaike info criterion

Schwarz criterion

F-statistic

Prob(F-statistic)



4.058081

0.349302

-0.547541

-0.126896

17.48215

0.000000



Estimation Command:

=====================

LS LOG(NS) C LOG(MDCC) LOG(MDD) LOG(PHAN) LOG(THUOC) LOG(NUOC) LOG(LD)

LOG(TCC) LOG(TD) LOG(KT) MH

Estimation Equation:

=====================

LOG(NS) = C(1) + C(2)*LOG(MDCC) + C(3)*LOG(MDD) + C(4)*LOG(PHAN) + C(5)*LOG(THUOC) +

C(6)*LOG(NUOC) + C(7)*LOG(LD) + C(8)*LOG(TCC) + C(9)*LOG(TD) + C(10)*LOG(KT) + C(11)*MH

Substituted Coefficients:

=====================

LOG(NS) = 1.688788716 + 0.415997833*LOG(MDCC) + 0.2466862193*LOG(MDD) +

0.3201208301*LOG(PHAN) + 0.03276435922*LOG(THUOC) + 0.181882449*LOG(NUOC) 0.9339255936*LOG(LD) - 0.01258814326*LOG(TCC) - 0.3461890484*LOG(TD) +

0.2049831096*LOG(KT) + 0.8301125492*MH



PHỤ LỤC 3: KẾT XUẤT MÔ HÌNH HỒI QUY NHÂN TẠO

White Heteroskedasticity Test:

F-statistic

Obs*R-squared



1.703372

25.94769



Probability

Probability



0.093316

0.131653



Test Equation:

Dependent Variable: RESID^2

Method: Least Squares

Date: 07/02/13 Time: 15:38

Sample: 1 50

Included observations: 50

Variable



Coefficient



Std. Error



t-Statistic



Prob.



C

LOG(MDCC)

(LOG(MDCC))^2

LOG(MDD)

(LOG(MDD))^2

LOG(PHAN)

(LOG(PHAN))^2

LOG(THUOC)

(LOG(THUOC))^2

LOG(NUOC)

(LOG(NUOC))^2

LOG(LD)

(LOG(LD))^2

LOG(TCC)

(LOG(TCC))^2

LOG(TD)

(LOG(TD))^2

LOG(KT)

(LOG(KT))^2

MH



-5.589402

0.739187

-0.102080

-0.126393

0.012633

1.587430

-0.165585

0.009858

-0.001382

-0.088014

0.020969

1.115137

-0.337557

-0.361514

0.100142

0.128975

-0.006051

-0.049252

0.006929

-0.079735



3.384571

1.046465

0.130519

0.110020

0.017141

1.169807

0.121955

0.057012

0.044266

0.140866

0.038852

1.095102

0.381849

0.730601

0.219588

0.694369

0.134517

0.062454

0.058153

0.047448



-1.651436

0.706365

-0.782110

-1.148825

0.737034

1.357001

-1.357759

0.172917

-0.031217

-0.624808

0.539709

1.018295

-0.884007

-0.494817

0.456044

0.185745

-0.044983

-0.788617

0.119152

-1.680459



0.1091

0.4854

0.4403

0.2597

0.4668

0.1849

0.1847

0.8639

0.9753

0.5368

0.5934

0.3167

0.3837

0.6243

0.6516

0.8539

0.9644

0.4365

0.9059

0.1033



R-squared

Adjusted R-squared

S.E. of regression

Sum squared resid

Log likelihood

Durbin-Watson stat



0.518954

0.214291

0.046782

0.065657

94.93629

2.011741



Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var

Akaike info criterion

Schwarz criterion

F-statistic

Prob(F-statistic)



0.021809

0.052778

-2.997452

-2.232642

1.703372

0.093316



PHỤ LỤC 4: KẾT XUẤT MÔ HÌNH HỒI QUY BỔ SUNG

MÔ HÌNH 1

Dependent Variable: LOG(MDCC)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 07/02/13 Time: 15:41

Sample: 1 50

Included observations: 50

Variable



Coefficient



Std. Error



t-Statistic



Prob.



C

LOG(MDD)

LOG(PHAN)

LOG(THUOC)

LOG(NUOC)

LOG(LD)

LOG(TCC)

LOG(TD)

LOG(KT)

MH



3.725897

-0.097575

0.035853

0.178207

-0.005508

0.319902

-0.122617

0.030465

-0.003388

-0.262508



1.087099

0.084199

0.192511

0.102810

0.096168

0.331183

0.214808

0.165941

0.088649

0.130436



3.427376

-1.158860

0.186239

1.733364

-0.057274

0.965939

-0.570824

0.183589

-0.038216

-2.012538



0.0014

0.2534

0.8532

0.0907

0.9546

0.3399

0.5713

0.8553

0.9697

0.0509



R-squared

Adjusted R-squared

S.E. of regression

Sum squared resid

Log likelihood

Durbin-Watson stat



0.384557

0.246082

0.231460

2.142957

7.798986

1.520105



Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var

Akaike info criterion

Schwarz criterion

F-statistic

Prob(F-statistic)



4.093885

0.266572

0.088041

0.470445

2.777088

0.012601



MÔ HÌNH 2

Dependent Variable: LOG(MDD)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 07/02/13 Time: 15:42

Sample: 1 50

Included observations: 50

Variable



Coefficient



Std. Error



t-Statistic



Prob.



C

LOG(MDCC)

LOG(PHAN)

LOG(THUOC)

LOG(NUOC)

LOG(LD)

LOG(TCC)

LOG(TD)

LOG(KT)

MH



2.117480

-0.332906

0.114243

-0.188019

-0.124848

0.961276

-0.059103

0.179723

0.045310

-0.397276



2.259203

0.287270

0.355283

0.194646

0.176539

0.599866

0.398276

0.305321

0.163591

0.244906



0.937268

-1.158860

0.321556

-0.965950

-0.707195

1.602483

-0.148398

0.588636

0.276971

-1.622156



0.3542

0.2534

0.7495

0.3399

0.4835

0.1169

0.8828

0.5594

0.7832

0.1126



R-squared

Adjusted R-squared

S.E. of regression

Sum squared resid

Log likelihood

Durbin-Watson stat



0.150765

-0.040312

0.427531

7.311323

-22.88196

1.752015



Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var

Akaike info criterion

Schwarz criterion

F-statistic

Prob(F-statistic)



2.508022

0.419166

1.315278

1.697683

0.789026

0.627865



MÔ HÌNH 3

Dependent Variable: LOG(PHAN)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 07/02/13 Time: 15:43

Sample: 1 50

Included observations: 50

Variable



Coefficient



Std. Error



t-Statistic



Prob.



C

LOG(MDCC)

LOG(MDD)

LOG(THUOC)

LOG(NUOC)

LOG(LD)

LOG(TCC)

LOG(TD)

LOG(KT)

MH



3.967883

0.024165

0.022568

0.173842

-0.050228

-0.160817

0.018439

0.261070

-0.018039

0.105656



0.798009

0.129750

0.070185

0.083088

0.078553

0.273865

0.177043

0.129888

0.072724

0.111126



4.972231

0.186239

0.321556

2.092267

-0.639408

-0.587212

0.104151

2.009959

-0.248050

0.950770



0.0000

0.8532

0.7495

0.0428

0.5262

0.5604

0.9176

0.0512

0.8054

0.3474



R-squared

Adjusted R-squared

S.E. of regression

Sum squared resid

Log likelihood

Durbin-Watson stat



0.194361

0.013093

0.190021

1.444325

17.66259

1.969180



Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var

Akaike info criterion

Schwarz criterion

F-statistic

Prob(F-statistic)



4.732211

0.191278

-0.306504

0.075901

1.072228

0.403700



MÔ HÌNH 4

Dependent Variable: LOG(THUOC)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 07/02/13 Time: 15:45

Sample: 1 50

Included observations: 50

Variable



Coefficient



Std. Error



t-Statistic



Prob.



C

LOG(MDCC)

LOG(MDD)

LOG(PHAN)

LOG(NUOC)

LOG(LD)

LOG(TCC)

LOG(TD)

LOG(KT)

MH



-2.460520

0.392049

-0.121237

0.567436

-0.065926

0.665023

0.051560

-0.437348

-0.118413

-0.256732



1.792217

0.226178

0.125510

0.271206

0.142263

0.485663

0.319800

0.236323

0.130150

0.198926



-1.372891

1.733364

-0.965950

2.092267

-0.463407

1.369311

0.161225

-1.850637

-0.909824

-1.290588



0.1774

0.0907

0.3399

0.0428

0.6456

0.1785

0.8727

0.0716

0.3684

0.2043



R-squared

Adjusted R-squared

S.E. of regression

Sum squared resid

Log likelihood

Durbin-Watson stat



0.420868

0.290563

0.343308

4.714426

-11.91203

1.703640



Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var

Akaike info criterion

Schwarz criterion

F-statistic

Prob(F-statistic)



1.168144

0.407594

0.876481

1.258886

3.229873

0.004920



MÔ HÌNH 5

Dependent Variable: LOG(NUOC)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 07/02/13 Time: 15:46

Sample: 1 50

Included observations: 50

Variable



Coefficient



Std. Error



t-Statistic



Prob.



C

LOG(MDCC)

LOG(MDD)

LOG(PHAN)

LOG(THUOC)

LOG(LD)

LOG(TCC)

LOG(TD)

LOG(KT)

MH



1.127335

-0.014888

-0.098910

-0.201435

-0.081000

0.650770

0.439271

0.091100

0.080018

0.213835



2.025012

0.259941

0.139863

0.315034

0.174792

0.541107

0.347728

0.272555

0.145199

0.222489



0.556706

-0.057274

-0.707195

-0.639408

-0.463407

1.202663

1.263262

0.334245

0.551096

0.961106



0.5808

0.9546

0.4835

0.5262

0.6456

0.2362

0.2138

0.7399

0.5846

0.3423



R-squared

Adjusted R-squared

S.E. of regression

Sum squared resid

Log likelihood

Durbin-Watson stat



0.388348

0.250726

0.380539

5.792389

-17.05997

2.204780



Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var

Akaike info criterion

Schwarz criterion

F-statistic

Prob(F-statistic)



1.821495

0.439621

1.082399

1.464803

2.821846

0.011473



MÔ HÌNH 6

Dependent Variable: LOG(LD)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 07/02/13 Time: 15:47

Sample: 1 50

Included observations: 50

Variable



Coefficient



Std. Error



t-Statistic



Prob.



C

LOG(MDCC)

LOG(MDD)

LOG(PHAN)

LOG(THUOC)

LOG(NUOC)

LOG(TCC)

LOG(TD)

LOG(KT)

MH



1.221951

0.071254

0.062756

-0.053146

0.067331

0.053626

-0.141565

-0.002870

0.030838

0.258878



0.550636

0.073766

0.039162

0.090506

0.049171

0.044589

0.099299

0.078348

0.041554

0.049978



2.219164

0.965939

1.602483

-0.587212

1.369311

1.202663

-1.425643

-0.036633

0.742125

5.179790



0.0322

0.3399

0.1169

0.5604

0.1785

0.2362

0.1617

0.9710

0.4623

0.0000



R-squared

Adjusted R-squared

S.E. of regression

Sum squared resid

Log likelihood

Durbin-Watson stat



0.567329

0.469978

0.109238

0.477314

45.34316

2.029023



Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var

Akaike info criterion

Schwarz criterion

F-statistic

Prob(F-statistic)



1.480180

0.150046

-1.413726

-1.031322

5.827673

0.000037



MÔ HÌNH 7

Dependent Variable: LOG(TCC)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 07/02/13 Time: 15:48

Sample: 1 50

Included observations: 50

Variable



Coefficient



Std. Error



t-Statistic



Prob.



C

LOG(MDCC)

LOG(MDD)

LOG(PHAN)

LOG(THUOC)

LOG(NUOC)

LOG(LD)

LOG(TD)

LOG(KT)

MH



2.279731

-0.065897

-0.009310

0.014703

0.012595

0.087338

-0.341571

-0.066709

-0.042804

0.267402



0.831688

0.115443

0.062736

0.141170

0.078123

0.069137

0.239591

0.121243

0.064636

0.091004



2.741090

-0.570824

-0.148398

0.104151

0.161225

1.263262

-1.425643

-0.550209

-0.662230

2.938341



0.0091

0.5713

0.8828

0.9176

0.8727

0.2138

0.1617

0.5852

0.5116

0.0055



R-squared

Adjusted R-squared

S.E. of regression

Sum squared resid

Log likelihood

Durbin-Watson stat



0.420224

0.289775

0.169682

1.151672

23.32327

2.349605



Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var

Akaike info criterion

Schwarz criterion

F-statistic

Prob(F-statistic)



1.632382

0.201343

-0.532931

-0.150526

3.221357

0.005006



MÔ HÌNH 8

Dependent Variable: LOG(TD)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 07/02/13 Time: 15:48

Sample: 1 50

Included observations: 50

Variable



Coefficient



Std. Error



t-Statistic



Prob.



C

LOG(MDCC)

LOG(MDD)

LOG(PHAN)

LOG(THUOC)

LOG(NUOC)

LOG(LD)

LOG(TCC)

LOG(KT)

MH



0.947320

0.027635

0.047784

0.351375

-0.180334

0.030573

-0.011689

-0.112599

0.030860

0.189982



1.168079

0.150529

0.081178

0.174817

0.097444

0.091469

0.319080

0.204648

0.084293

0.126862



0.811007

0.183589

0.588636

2.009959

-1.850637

0.334245

-0.036633

-0.550209

0.366112

1.497557



0.4222

0.8553

0.5594

0.0512

0.0716

0.7399

0.9710

0.5852

0.7162

0.1421



R-squared

Adjusted R-squared

S.E. of regression

Sum squared resid

Log likelihood

Durbin-Watson stat



0.362497

0.219058

0.220449

1.943918

10.23601

1.676524



Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var

Akaike info criterion

Schwarz criterion

F-statistic

Prob(F-statistic)



2.582259

0.249459

-0.009440

0.372964

2.527195

0.021325



MÔ HÌNH 9

Dependent Variable: LOG(KT)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 07/02/13 Time: 15:49

Sample: 1 50

Included observations: 50

Variable



Coefficient



Std. Error



t-Statistic



Prob.



C

LOG(MDCC)

LOG(MDD)

LOG(PHAN)

LOG(THUOC)

LOG(NUOC)

LOG(LD)

LOG(TCC)

LOG(TD)

MH



0.516441

-0.010777

0.042246

-0.085141

-0.171222

0.094172

0.440422

-0.253361

0.108221

-0.101415



2.203791

0.282000

0.152528

0.343240

0.188192

0.170880

0.593461

0.382588

0.295596

0.243608



0.234342

-0.038216

0.276971

-0.248050

-0.909824

0.551096

0.742125

-0.662230

0.366112

-0.416306



0.8159

0.9697

0.7832

0.8054

0.3684

0.5846

0.4623

0.5116

0.7162

0.6794



R-squared

Adjusted R-squared

S.E. of regression

Sum squared resid

Log likelihood

Durbin-Watson stat



0.091068

-0.113441

0.412823

6.816904

-21.13149

2.323609



Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var

Akaike info criterion

Schwarz criterion

F-statistic

Prob(F-statistic)



0.624103

0.391228

1.245260

1.627664

0.445301

0.901689



MÔ HÌNH 10

Dependent Variable: MH

Method: Least Squares

Date: 07/02/13 Time: 15:50

Sample: 1 50

Included observations: 50

Variable



Coefficient



Std. Error



t-Statistic



Prob.



C

LOG(MDCC)

LOG(MDD)

LOG(PHAN)

LOG(THUOC)

LOG(NUOC)

LOG(LD)

LOG(TCC)

LOG(TD)

LOG(KT)



-2.850856

-0.350264

-0.155369

0.209167

-0.155710

0.105557

1.550803

0.663898

0.279448

-0.042539



1.355266

0.174041

0.095779

0.219998

0.120651

0.109829

0.299395

0.225943

0.186603

0.102181



-2.103539

-2.012538

-1.622156

0.950770

-1.290588

0.961106

5.179790

2.938341

1.497557

-0.416306



0.0418

0.0509

0.1126

0.3474

0.2043

0.3423

0.0000

0.0055

0.1421

0.6794



R-squared

Adjusted R-squared

S.E. of regression

Sum squared resid

Log likelihood

Durbin-Watson stat



0.761721

0.708109

0.267364

2.859343

0.588853

1.633310



Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var

Akaike info criterion

Schwarz criterion

F-statistic

Prob(F-statistic)



0.400000

0.494872

0.376446

0.758850

14.20786

0.000000



PHỤ LỤC 5: KẾT XUẤT KIỂM ĐỊNH LM

Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:

F-statistic

Obs*R-squared



0.256409

0.335119



Probability

Probability



0.615523

0.562660



Test Equation:

Dependent Variable: RESID

Method: Least Squares

Date: 07/02/13 Time: 15:39

Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.

Variable



Coefficient



Std. Error



t-Statistic



Prob.



C

LOG(MDCC)

LOG(MDD)

LOG(PHAN)

LOG(THUOC)

LOG(NUOC)

LOG(LD)

LOG(TCC)

LOG(TD)

LOG(KT)

MH

RESID(-1)



-0.116883

0.006802

0.001785

0.026096

-0.001739

-0.005155

-0.021286

0.003166

-0.002194

0.003214

0.006224

-0.091661



0.930970

0.116111

0.062538

0.149637

0.077833

0.070884

0.247961

0.157446

0.121169

0.064974

0.100597

0.181015



-0.125550

0.058578

0.028535

0.174397

-0.022337

-0.072722

-0.085844

0.020109

-0.018105

0.049463

0.061871

-0.506369



0.9008

0.9536

0.9774

0.8625

0.9823

0.9424

0.9320

0.9841

0.9857

0.9608

0.9510

0.6155



R-squared

Adjusted R-squared

S.E. of regression

Sum squared resid

Log likelihood

Durbin-Watson stat



0.006702

-0.280831

0.168832

1.083157

24.85666

1.995094



Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var

Akaike info criterion

Schwarz criterion

F-statistic

Prob(F-statistic)



-1.79E-15

0.149179

-0.514266

-0.055381

0.023310

1.000000



PHỤ LỤC 6: MÔ HÌNH HÀM LOGIT

Dependent Variable: Y

Date: 07/02/13 Time: 15:28

Sample: 1 50

Included observations: 50

Convergence achieved after 9 iterations

Covariance matrix computed using second derivatives

Variable



Coefficient



Std. Error



z-Statistic



Prob.



C

TUOI

TD

LDC

DT

GIA

TH

TN



10.46643

0.139463

-2.219064

1.021954

-0.414337

-0.347988

1.067895

2.64E-05



5.906444

0.055824

0.756110

0.543773

0.160261

0.153055

0.502593

1.04E-05



1.772036

2.498259

-2.934843

1.879375

-2.585384

-2.273619

2.124770

2.534571



0.0764

0.0125

0.0033

0.0602

0.0097

0.0230

0.0336

0.0113



Mean dependent var

S.E. of regression

Sum squared resid

Log likelihood

Restr. log likelihood

LR statistic (7 df)

Probability(LR stat)

Obs with Dep=0

Obs with Dep=1



0.600000

0.364280

5.573405

-18.19180

-33.65058

30.91757

6.44E-05

20

30



S.D. dependent var

Akaike info criterion

Schwarz criterion

Hannan-Quinn criter.

Avg. log likelihood

McFadden R-squared

Total obs



0.494872

1.047672

1.353596

1.164169

-0.363836

0.459391

50



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