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KRI: Assessing the Economic and Social Impact of the Syrian Conflict and ISIS



2006 and 2009) and Erbil (injury growth of 141 percent each year

between 2006 and 2009).



Asset preservation: Public transport sector

The extent and capacity of the public transport system in KRI is dominated by the usage of taxis. No mass transit is present in KRI cities, be

it a regular intercity railway, light rail transit, or bus rapid transit.

However, the Ministry of Transportation and Communications, responsible for the public transport sector in KRI, is planning to organize the

bus system and introduce mass transit systems in Erbil and Sulaymaniyah.

The number of passenger buses in KRI in 2010 was 5,082 buses, of

which 3,490 were intracity buses and 1,592 were intercity buses. The

number of taxis was 55,331, of which 52,500 were intracity taxis and

2,831 were intercity taxis. The total number of passengers using these

services was 5.13 million in 2010, the majority of whom (about

75 percent) were passengers of intracity taxis.



Asset preservation: Railways sector

Currently KRI does not have an operational railway. Iraq has a railway

network of about 2,100 kilometers extending from Basrah in the south

through Baghdad to Qaem and the Syrian border to the west, and to

Kirkuk, Mosul, and Rabiah at the Syrian border to the north. However,

KRI has yet to link to the network. The recently completed railway master plan presents a clear vision for the development of the network

including linkages between Kirkuk, Erbil, Mosul, and Dohuk to the

Turkish border. The plan also intends to connect Jordan and the Islamic

Republic of Iran.



Asset preservation: Airports sector

Two international airports are operational in Erbil and Sulaymaniyah.

A third airport in Dohuk is currently under construction. Although the

existing airports seem to be meeting demands, air cargo facilities may

require further expansion (UN-HABITAT 2012), which could further

strengthen the region’s logistics potential. A weak link is regional air

cargo capability, however. Neither of the existing airports has adequate

air cargo facilities, and bureaucratic procedures for cargo imports and

exports are heavily criticized by users. A move toward electronic data

interchange for cargo movements and customs formalities is overdue.

The lack of a cold chain for fruit, vegetables, flowers, or other potential

exports is also a handicap.



Impact of the Conflict on Infrastructure



Freight and Transit Activities

Freight services are provided by a trucking sector that is highly fragmented and with a generally outdated fleet. There are about 345 transportation companies for goods and 44 companies to transport oil products,

most of which are based in Erbil. Most trucking companies own only one

truck, although a few small fleets are operated.

Iraq’s trade is primarily with Turkey with significant goods transported

across the main border crossing at Ibrahim Al-Khalil. However, several

other borders crossings are found with the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The main cross-border locations in the north are the following: Ibrahim

Al-Khalil-Khabur (Turkey), Parwiz Khan-Qasr Shiren (the Islamic Republic

of Iran), Halabja-Nowsud (the Islamic Republic of Iran), BashmaghMariwan (the Islamic Republic of Iran), Mawat-Bana (the Islamic Republic

of Iran), Phishdar-Sardasht (the Islamic Republic of Iran), and Haji OmranPiran Shahr (the Islamic Republic of Iran). About 50  percent of Iraq’s

imports come through its north–south corridor and enter through the

Ibrahim Al-Khalil border crossing from the European Union, Russia, and

Central Asia via Turkey. In 2013, about 3,000 heavy trucks entered Iraq

daily from Turkey through the Ibrahim Al-Khalil border crossing. In recent

months this figure has dropped to fewer than 700 a day.



Impact of the Crisis on the Transport Sector and

Stabilization Needs

The Syrian and IDP crises led to an increase in transport costs. The closing

of the Bajen refinery in Mosul, the main supplier of bitumen and fuel to

KRI governorates, together with the closure of the main road corridor

from Dohuk to Erbil via Mosul, have led to an increase in the price of

bitumen from $400 to $620 per ton and $500 to $600 per ton in Dohuk

and Erbil, respectively, as well as to an increase in fuel prices. The latter

has caused an increase in transport cost by 50 percent. Vehicle operating

costs have increased because of diversion of traffic to lesser capacity and

dirt roads.

The combination of the budget crisis and influx of IDPs and refugees

may have caused an increase in wear and tear on the road network. The

crises have resulted in the closure of one of the main trade routes between

north and south from Dohuk to Erbil via Mosul, IDPs who fled their

homes using their own vehicles caused an abrupt increase in traffic by

about 20 percent, and the humanitarian relief efforts may have added a

toll on the road network. The impact on the road network could have

been more severe should the trade volume between Iraq and Turkey

continue at the same levels of precrisis.



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KRI: Assessing the Economic and Social Impact of the Syrian Conflict and ISIS



The ISIS crisis has also had severe impacts on parts of the network,

especially that at the frontier with Syrian borders as well as Mosul

governorate. Eight bridges in the three governorates (Erbil, Dohuk,

and Sulaymaniyah) have already been either fully or partially

destroyed by recent military conflict. In addition, important road segments have also been destroyed or blocked. Therefore new alternate

road links, including bridges, will need to be constructed in the near

future to provide important links between the governorates and major

cities. In addition, pavement of dirt roads leading to refugee camps will

also be necessary.

Preserving the road network (outside municipalities) to similar precrisis conditions would require an additional spending on maintenance of

$15.4 million and $20.3 million under the low (25 percent traffic increase)

and high (30 percent traffic increase) scenarios, respectively, in 2015.25

Most of the wear and tear will occur in governorates with a high refugee

influx, such as Dohuk and Sulaymaniyah.

Restoring the municipal road network to similar precrisis conditions

would also require an additional $5.2 million and $6.1 million under the

low (35 percent traffic increase) and high (40 percent traffic increase)

scenarios, respectively, in 2015.25 These figures are based on the low case

scenario, which is equivalent to 30 percent and 35 percent increase in

municipal traffic for 2014 and 2015, respectively.

Therefore, the sum of additional funding required for maintenance of

main roads and municipal road networks would be $20.6 million for the

low case scenario and $26.4 million for the high case scenario. This will

be needed for the reconstruction of roads and bridges damaged in the

Syrian and ISIS conflicts and new access to refugee camps. Initial estimates from the roads directorates in Erbil and Dohuk show the need for

about $26.5 million to repair the damage caused directly by the conflict,

whether through bombing essential roads and bridges between Dohuk,

Mosul, and Erbil or through the toll on diverting all traffic, including

heavy traffic, on roads with much smaller capacities. Of this amount,

$7.5  million would be allocated to repair the damaged bridges and

rehabilitate and maintain about 120 kilometers of roads. Moreover, an

additional $19 million will be needed to construct 50 kilometers of road

access to the refugee camps.



Notes

1. In the range of $1 per month for an apartment in Erbil and Dohuk.

2. Data from the Ministry of Water, SEINA report, and World Bank staff

calculations.



Impact of the Conflict on Infrastructure



3. The use of wells is estimated at 35 percent in Erbil City center and 40 percent

outside the city. In Sulaymaniyah, in the city it is 2 percent but it reaches

70  percent outside the city; and in Dohuk it is 2 percent in the city and

40 percent outside the city.

4. Data provided by the Ministry of Municipalities and Tourism.

5. Based on http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Revision_2014

_Iraq_SRP.pdf the cost of providing water and sanitation is about $40  per

person per month.

6. Estimation by Ministry of Municipalities General Directorates of

Municipalities in Dohuk and Erbil.

7. Out-of-camp refugees and IDPs assumed to generate the same amount of

per capita daily solid waste as the host communities.

8. Per capita solid waste generated only, not counting industrial, commercial,

military, and hospital solid waste. A media source estimated recently that

this amount is equal to the total solid waste generated in KRI by the population (Alexander Whitcomb, RUDAW Media Network, September 5, 2014,

http://rudaw.net/english/about).

9. Based on information from the Ministry of Municipalities and Tourism,

Directorate General of Duhok Municipalities, September 2014.

10. http://www.citypopulation.de/Iraq.html, 2011.

11. At the time of writing the report, estimations were available for Erbil

Governorate, Dohuk Governorate, and Sulaymaniyah City (excluding

the rest of Sulaymaniyah Governorate).

12. All-weather cabinets will be installed to replace camps for IDPs and refugees

for extended temporary stays in KRI.

13. Based on average baseline period (2011) and estimates received for governorates of Dohuk and Erbil and Sulaymaniyah City.

14. Average calculated by the World Bank team on the basis of Sulaymaniyah

Governorate with 71 percent of daily waste being organic, and Erbil City

with 56 percent of solid waste generated being organic. Information from

the Ministry of Municipalities and Tourism, Presidency of Erbil Municipality,

Directorate for Municipality Services and Environment.

15. Estimates for 2014 (without refugees and IDPs) provided by the Ministry of

Municipalities and Tourism, Presidency of Erbil Municipality, Directorate of

Services and Environment Municipality.

16. Reported by the Ministry of Municipalities and Tourism, Presidency of Erbil

Municipality, Directorate of Services and Environment Municipality. It is

likely that the number is slightly higher because of higher amounts of solid

waste per capita generated in Erbil’s four main IDPs camps.

17. Estimated as 80 percent by the Sulaymaniyah Municipality.

18. In 2013, the KRG Ministry of Finance provided ID 80 billion support to the

sector each month ($770 million for 2013).

19. KRG Ministry of Natural Resources, Press Release, May 26, 2014.

20. These estimates are as follows: There are five individuals living in each tent;

the cost of the electricity distribution networks is $2,100 per tent; the cost of

constructing the electricity transmission networks is $500 per tent; the cost

of access to electricity is $305 per tent per year; and the cost of fuel to cover

energy needs is $1,433 per tent per year.

21. From the pavement condition surveys for the KRG Road Asset Management

Study (2013).

22. KRG Road Asset Management (2013) and Highway Master Plan (2012b).

23. “A” is free-flow condition and “F” is forced or breakdown flow.

24. KRG Highway Master Plan (2012b).

25. Based on World Bank calculations.



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APPENDIX A



KRG Impact Assessment, 2012–14



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KRI: Assessing the Economic and Social Impact of the Syrian Conflict and ISIS



TABLE A.1

KRG Impact Assessment, 2012–14

dollars, millions

2012



2013



2014

Syrian Refugee and Iraqi IDP

Influx



Syrian Refugee



Syrian Refugee



Syrian Refugee



Influx



Influx



Influx



Health



1.3



19.7



5.5



19.7



Current spending



19.7



Iraqi IDP Influx



Human Development



1.3



19.7



5.5



Primary health care



0.3



3.9



1.1



3.9



Hospital



1.1



15.7



4.4



15.8



Education



0.6



3.1



Capital spending



0.6



3.1



0.6



3.1



School construction/rehabilitation

Food Security



2.1



9.0



4.1



14.6



2.1



9.0



4.1



14.6



3.4



29.3



Energy



9.2



35.5



70.0



250.0



Current spending



242.1



Current spending

Food security

Total: Human Development



47.1



Infrastructure



9.2



35.5



67.8



Additional fuel cost



2.1



11.9



25.5



91.0



Financial subsidy to electricity sector



7.1



23.6



42.3



151.0



2.2



7.9



2.2



7.9



Capital spending

Cost of electricity infrastructure in camps

Solid Waste Management



0.3



0.5



0.6



1.0



Current spending



0.2



0.3



0.4



0.6



Capital spending



0.1



0.2



0.2



0.4



Water



4.3



2.6



6.4



19.7



Current spending



4.3



2.6



2.3



7.1



Capital spending



0.0



0.0



4.1



12.6



Memo: Humanitarian (UNICEF, UNHCR, etc.)



19.7



48.7



52.5



78.8



Total: Infrastructure



13.7



38.5



77.0



270.6



Grand Total: Human Development and Infrastructure



17.2



67.8



Note: IDP = internally displaced person.



394.7