Tải bản đầy đủ - 0 (trang)
3 Manufacturing Exports from the Unification of Italy to the Present—Growth Trends and International Comparisons

3 Manufacturing Exports from the Unification of Italy to the Present—Growth Trends and International Comparisons

Tải bản đầy đủ - 0trang

182



M. Fortis and M. Carminati



specialization of non-agricultural finished products. In fact, from 1966 to 1970 its

overall export market share grew to 72 % (Fuà 1989b, Table 8.8).

Fuà shows that between 1952 and 1967, there were other significant changes in

Italian exports. Agricultural products decreased from 14 to 5 %, and food and

tobacco decreased from 11 to 4 %. The export shares of chemicals and rubber

tended to remain constant, increasing slightly from 14 to 16 %, and steel also

increased from 4 to 6 %. The most impressive changes, however, took place in the

mechanical engineering and metal products sector which increased from 20 to

39 %. During that same period, textiles, leather, and wearing apparel decreased

from 28 to 19 % (Fuà 1989b, Table 8.10). Thus a clearer picture emerges depicting

how, in the first thirty years which followed World War II, an important shift

occurred in “Made in Italy” products. The traditional personal and household goods

exports were progressively flanked by increasingly specialized mechanical engineering and metal products. This trend which became progressively evident in later

years (ample proof will be provided in the following paragraphs).

Obviously, a historical reconstruction of Italian foreign trade cannot be done

independently of a comparison with other countries. Thus in this section, a brief

analysis will be provided of the main long-term Italian export trends, especially in

manufacturing compared to those of other major economies. First of all, the export

trends of the G-7 will be considered from 1900 to 1980. Second, more recent years

will be reviewed, extending the analysis to emerging countries, thus comparing the

export trends of Italy and other G-20 countries.

UN historical data allow us to reconstruct a comparative framework of export

dynamics in manufacturing and non-agricultural products of the main industrialized

countries from 1900 to 1980. WTO data are used for the subsequent years.

The UN historical data series are coherent with the SITC (Standard International

Trade Classification) which divides industrial manufacturing in four groups of

products: SITC 5 (chemicals), 6 (manufactured goods, classified mainly by the raw

materials used; leather, textiles, ceramics, metals, etc.), 7 (machinery-means of

transport which include IT and electronics), and 8 (other manufacturing including

wearing apparel, footwear, furniture, etc.). The historical WTO series which group

together many countries allow for homogenous comparisons and only differ slightly

from the UN data. The main difference is that the WTO does not include, among its

manufacturing products, nonferrous metals.

Italy, except for brief periods, has always been characterized by a slight structural deficit in its trade balance. In specific historical phases, the deficit depended on

a negative agro-food balance, while in others, including the present, it was mainly

determined by the so-called energy “bill”. However, Italy’s manufacturing trade

balance, except during the Giolittian era, has always been positive, especially since

World War II, and particularly from the 1960s Italy began to be characterized by a

high manufacturing surplus.

Italian industries, due to the “miracle” years, mainly focused on the domestic

market. After the “economic boom”, which ended with the 1964–65 recession, they

began focusing abroad for growth opportunities. Exports in many of the classical

“Made in Italy” products like wearing apparel, footwear, furniture, ceramic tiles,



3 Development Profiles of the Italian Industrial System …



183



taps and valves, industrial machinery, domestic appliances, etc., took off precisely

during those years. During the 70s, 80s and 90s industrial districts saw a new

increase in export driven demand. Italy affirmed itself on the world stage with its

traditional “3F” (Fashion, Food and Furniture) products and also became a new

protagonist in the export of mechanical engineering products along with Germany,

Japan and the United States.

Asian competition, over the past 15 years, has progressively eroded market

shares of Italian products with low added valued in fashion and furniture. The

Italian response to increased competition has been twofold: (a) focusing on high

added value personal and household goods; (b) diversifying more and more towards

machinery-means of transport, in particular in mechanical and non-electronic

machinery (appliances for generic use and industrial machinery), and means of

transport other than cars (luxury yachts, cruise ships, helicopters).

A historical overview shows that Italian manufacturing exports can be divided in

two specific periods. The first, from 1900 to the 1980s, is a long period of growth

(with the sole interruption of the autarchic and sanction-inclined fascist era), where

Italy consistently reduced the export gap of manufactured products with other large

advanced nations, and proved that exports were an important part of its economy.

The second period approximately covers the past 35 years. This period sees the

rapid decline of manufacturing exports of major industrialized countries (especially

the United States and the United Kingdom) due to increased competition from

China and South Korea. Italy, however, remains a net exporter of high-end

industrial products, right behind Germany.

Table 3.1 shows the evolution, from 1900 to 2014, of non-food manufactured

products of the G-7 nations, in current US dollars, for the following key years:

1900, 1913 (pre-WWI), 1928 (pre-Great Depression of 1929), 1938 (pre-WWII),

1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2014 (most current available data).

The G-7, up to 1990, represented the “universe” of the major countries exporting

manufactured products. China and Korea, however, would soon affirm themselves

as the absolute new manufacturing protagonists in world trade.

Italy, in 1990, ranked fifth in the G-7 manufacturing exports, before Japan

(another “late bloomer” like Italy) and Canada. Italian manufacturing exports, in

terms of value, were approximately one fourth of French and US exports, almost

one eighth of German exports, and more or less one eleventh of UK exports.

From 1900 to 1938, the United Kingdom would dominate world manufacturing

exports, followed by Germany and the United States. The latter, while affirming

itself in those years as the new economic world leader, was less exports oriented

than the UK and Germany because American growth was mainly constituted by the

dynamics of its huge domestic market. Italy remained the fifth largest exporter of

manufactured goods from 1913 to 1928, but slid to seventh place in 1938 behind

Japan and Canada. Notwithstanding the drop in rank, the exports ratio gap with the

United Kingdom and Germany was reduced to 6:1, and with France it became 2:1.

After World War II, from 1950 to 1960, the United States became the lead

exporter of manufactured products. It was surpassed by Germany from 1970



184



M. Fortis and M. Carminati



Table 3.1 Exports of manufactured goods (excluding food) of G-7 countries: 1900–2014 (million

current dollars)

1900

United

Kingdom

Germany



1913

1172

779



France



473



United

States

Italy

Japan

Canada

1950

United

States

United

Kingdom

France



419



2076



Germany



1460



Canada

Italy

Japan

1980

Germany



1278

795

691



United

States

Japan

France

United

Kingdom

Italy



108

52

14

6015

5221



162,075

142,239

122,711

81,099

78,717



United

Kingdom

Germany

United

States

France

Italy

Japan

Canada

1960

United

States

Germany

United

Kingdom

France

Japan

Italy

Canada

1990

Germany

United

States

Japan

France

Italy



1928

2094



1938

2914



986



United

Kingdom

United

States

Germany



877



France



1456



219

159

70



Italy

Japan

Canada

1970

Germany



1750



13,027

10,135

8610

5117

3602

2701

2621

375,651

290,486

275,145

161,308

148,083



United

States

Japan

United

Kingdom

France

Italy

Canada

2000

United

States

Germany

Japan

France

United

Kingdom

Italy



2329

2254



442

421

394

30,660

29,370

18,120

16,340

13,450

11,090

9720

648,907

483,239

449,686

272,809

233,018



United

Kingdom

Germany



1922



United

States

France



1574



Japan

Canada

Italy

1980

Germany

United

States

Japan

United

Kingdom

France

Italy

Canada

2014

Germany

United

States

Japan

France

Italy



1803



569

518

417

306

166,920

144,090

124,500

86,020

83,990

65,840

33,890

1,287,687

1,163,890

597,917

455,630

436,798



United

146,708

212,499 United

350,849

Kingdom

Kingdom

Canada

29,978 Canada

73,314 Canada

175,644 Canada

212,114

Italian manufacturing exports are indicated in bold font

Source Compiled by Marco Fortis using data from UN Comtrade (2015) and WTO (2015)

65,036



onwards, with the exception of a brief stint back in first place in 2000, due to a

favorable euro exchange rate. From 1950 to 1980, Italy stably maintained its sixth

position in exports within the G-7 group. The export gap with Germany was

reduced to one third from 1970 onward.



3 Development Profiles of the Italian Industrial System …



185



In 1990, for the first time, Italian manufacturing exports were greater than those

of the UK. The UK would gain over Italy again in 2000. This brief stint, however,

came to a close by the end of the first decade of the new millennium, when Italian

manufacturing exports were again stronger than UK exports. The exports gap this

time was more significant and it is unlikely that the UK will be in a position to

breach it since its manufacturing base is being continuously eroded.

In 2014, the G-7 classification for manufactured exports placed Germany firmly

at the top, with the United States close behind in second place. Both countries had a

trade balance of more than $1000 billion (current dollars). Japan ranked third,

followed by France and Italy with very similar export figures. Italy, as already

stated, has overtaken the UK, and can confidently confirm its fifth-place as a

manufacturing economy. The exports gap with Germany is 3:1, while with France it

has decreased to practically 1:1.

Table 3.2 broadens the trade comparison to the G-20 countries and ranks the

main manufacturing exporters in this broader group for the following years: 1980,

1990, 2000 and 2014. In this classification, Italy ranked sixth in 1980, fifth in 1990,

and seventh in 2000 and 2014. However, Italy’s seventh place in 2014 is worth

much more than its sixth place in 1980. It is practically equivalent to its fifth place

in 1990, since today it faces massive competition from China which did not exist in

prior years. The Asian giant, in less than a decade (China was already first in 2008),

jumped from 6th to 1st place in world exports surpassing Germany.

Export data are not enough to accurately rank Italy among the major manufacturing economies. In fact, one should also consider the balance of trade statistics

(i.e., the difference between exports and imports) to have a clearer idea of which

countries are net manufacturing exporters. Table 3.3 shows that over the past

30 years, Italy has constantly placed among the main industrial exporters of

manufactured products. It ranked third in 1980 and 1990, fourth in 2000, and fifth

in 2014.

The ranking was completely overturned from 1980 to 1990. The United States

from a net exporter of industrial products (fourth after Japan, Germany and Italy)

became a net importer, and slid to last-place in the G-20 classification. The United

Kingdom also went from being a net exporter to becoming a net importer—this

reflects the progressive de-industrialization of those economies in favor of the

tertiary sector. During this period, some firms began relocating their plants abroad

and outsourcing. Japan, Germany and Italy meanwhile maintained first, second and

third place as net exporters of manufactured goods. Between 1990 and 2000 South

Korean exports increased surpassing Italy and placing third as net exporters of

manufactured goods. China’s share of exports increased dramatically placing fifth,

practically next to Italy, with a trade surplus of only a few million dollars more. The

United States and the UK trade deficit in manufacturing products, meanwhile,

continued to increase.

China, in the first decade of the new millennium, sprinted forward ranking first

in world exports of manufactured goods by a wide margin ahead of Germany,

which in turn placed before Japan. The ranking, confirmed in 2014, saw Italy slide

to a solid fifth-place within this increasingly restricted group of net exporters of



186

Table 3.2 Exports of

manufactured goods of G-20

countries: 1900–2014 (billion

dollars)



M. Fortis and M. Carminati

1980



1990



Germany

162

Germany

376

United States

142

United States

290

Japan

123

Japan

275

France

81

France

161

United Kingdom

79

Italy

148

Italy

65

United Kingdom

147

Canada

30

Canada

73

South Korea

16

South Korea

61

China

9

China

44

Brazil

7

Mexico

25

India

5

Brazil

16

South Africa

5

India

13

Mexico

4

Indonesia

9

Australia

4

Turkey

9

Argentina

2

South Africa

8

Turkey

1

Australia

7

Saudi Arabia

1

Saudi Arabia

4

Indonesia

0

Argentina

4

Russian Federation

n.e.

Russian Federation

n.e.

2000

2014

United States

649

China

2202

Germany

483

Germany

1288

Japan

450

United States

1164

France

273

Japan

598

United Kingdom

233

South Korea

495

China

220

France

456

Italy

212

Italy

437

Canada

176

United Kingdom

351

South Korea

155

Mexico

309

Mexico

139

Canada

212

Indonesia

37

India

200

India

33

Turkey

121

Brazil

32

Russian Federation

104

Russian Federation

25

Brazil

75

Turkey

22

Indonesia

71

South Africa

20

Saudi Arabia

45

Australia

15

South Africa

42

Argentina

9

Australia

29

Saudi Arabia

6

Argentina

21

Italian manufacturing exports are indicated in bold font

Source Compiled by Marco Fortis using data from WTO (2015)



3 Development Profiles of the Italian Industrial System …

Table 3.3 Manufacturing

trade balance of G-20

countries: 1980–2014 (billion

dollars)



1980



187

1990



Japan

98

Japan

175

Germany

65

Germany

123

Italy

21

Italy

35

United States

18

South Korea

16

United Kingdom

9

Brazil

4

France

9

China

2

South Korea

6

Argentina

0

India

0

India

0

Turkey

−2

Turkey

−5

Brazil

−3

South Africa

−5

China

−3

Mexico

−7

Argentina

−6

Indonesia

−8

Indonesia

−7

France

−11

South Africa

−7

Saudi Arabia

−15

Australia

−11

Canada

−20

Canada

−11

United Kingdom

−23

Mexico

−12

Australia

−25

Saudi Arabia

−24

United States

−85

Russian Federation

n.e.

Russian Federation

n.e.

2000

2014

Japan

237

China

1023

Germany

120

Germany

419

South Korea

57

South Korea

219

Italy

50

Japan

190

China

50

Italy

135

India

10

India

14

Indonesia

6

Mexico

−8

France

5

South Africa

−18

South Africa

1

Turkey

−24

Russian Federation

−6

Argentina

−28

Brazil

−9

Indonesia

−34

Mexico

−11

France

−35

Argentina

−13

Saudi Arabia

−79

Turkey

−16

Brazil

−89

Saudi Arabia

−16

Russian Federation

−123

Canada

−25

United Kingdom

−129

United Kingdom

−42

Canada

−132

Australia

−44

Australia

−133

United States

−319

United States

−589

Italian trade balances are indicated in bold font

Source Compiled by Marco Fortis using data from WTO (2015)



188



M. Fortis and M. Carminati



industrial products. The United States continued to place last with a huge balance of

trade deficit. The UK’s trade deficit has kept on widening. Today, France has

become a net importer of manufactured products.

For a comprehensive evaluation of Italian industrial manufacturing competitiveness, it would be useful to see how the market shares of the G-7 countries,

China and South Korea shifted from 1980 to 2014 (Table 3.4). Once again China’s

role was impressive. In 1980, it moved from last-place with a 0.8 % world market

share, to first place in 2014 with a market share of 18 %, with an increase of over 17

points. China’s massive leap occurred mainly in the first decade of the new millennium once it joined the WTO in 2001. It was further assisted by the end of the

multi-fiber agreement in January 2005, which eliminated all quantitative restrictions

in textiles and wearing apparel. In 2010 the Chinese share of world exports had

already reached 14.8 % growing by more than 10 points from 2000 (when it was

4.7 %). South Korea is another country which saw a significant increase in its world

market share of manufactured products, increasing from 1.4 % in 1980 to 4.0 % in

2014. During this period, the market shares of all G-7 countries contracted, but

among these countries, Italy decreased the least after Canada. Canada, however,

played a decidedly modest role in the world export of manufactured products.

Italy’s share was reduced by −2.4 % and went from 6 % in 1980 to 3.6 % in 2014.

Japan decreased by −6.3 % (from 11.2 to 4.9 %), the UK by −4.3 % (from 7.2 to

2.9 %), Germany also by −4.3 % (from 14.8 to 10.5 %), the United States by

3.5 % (from 13 to 9.5 %), and France by 3.7 % (from 7.4 to 3.7 %). Overall, in

1980 Italy placed sixth before China, South Korea and Canada. In 2014, Italy slid

by one place and ranked seventh, still placing before Canada, but it was surpassed

by China and South Korea.

Italy’s industrial competitiveness can be evaluated overall if the analysis is

completed with the percentage variations by country in the world export of manufactured products. Furthermore, the period from 1980 to 2014 must be subdivided

in three periods (Table 3.5). Italy, in the period 1980–1990, ranked fifth in the

classification of countries for the percentage change in manufactured exports, which

increased by 4 %. During this decade, the share of US, French and British exports

were already declining, while Chinese and South Korean world exports of manufactured products increased (+132.4 and +76.8 % respectively). Over the following

decade, 1990–2000, Italy’s share of world exports was considerably reduced

(−26.8 %) and it slipped to eighth place. The situation was even worse for

Germany, a country often exalted as the model of competitiveness. It plummeted to

last place (−34.4 %). Japan also saw a net reduction in its share of exports of

manufactured products (−16.7 %), but managed to maintain sixth place. The United

States, on the other hand, witnessed an increase in exports (+13.9 %) and moved up

to fourth place. It must, nonetheless, be noted, that world exports in 2000 were

influenced by a favorable exchange rate for the US dollar with respect to the euro.

This contributed to worsening the comparison of Eurozone countries in favor of the

US and China. With regards to the last period, 2000–2014, China and South Korea

were the only countries that experienced major growth in world exports of manufactured products (+283.6 and +22.3 % respectively). Germany increased by a



3 Development Profiles of the Italian Industrial System …



189



Table 3.4 Market shares of G-7 countries, China and South Korea in world exports of

manufactured goods: 1980–2014

1980 (%)



1990 (%)



2000 (%)



China

0.8

1.9

4.7

Germany

14.8

15.7

10.3

United States

13.0

12.1

13.8

Japan

11.2

11.5

9.6

South Korea

1.4

2.5

3.3

France

7.4

6.7

5.8

Italy

6.0

6.2

4.5

United Kingdom

7.2

6.1

5.0

Canada

2.7

3.1

3.7

Italian market shares are indicated in bold font

% values, calculated in current dollars

Source Compiled by Fondazione Edison using data from WTO (2015)



2014 (%)

18.0

10.5

9.5

4.9

4.0

3.7

3.6

2.9

1.7



+2.1 %. While Italy’s share of world exports contracted (−21.3 %), it was among

the economies which decreased the least. It placed fourth in percentage point

variations in world exports of manufactured products, and improved its standing of

the previous 15 years.

Based on market shares calculated in current US dollars, Italy over the past

decade has experienced a considerably blander decline in its competitiveness

compared to other major industrialized nations (with the exception of Germany).

This fact has been consistently ignored by those who insist on analyzing export data

in terms of volume, which depict a very negative as well as inaccurate picture of

Italian exports. According to these experts, Italy’s decreasing competitiveness is

due to the wrong choice of specializations by companies that are too small to rival

against large competitors. This has forced Italy to step back in world trade. Italy’s

performance has thus become considerably worse than “super-Germany”, and also

worse than France or the UK.

Nonetheless, when considering Istat’s revision of the national accounting data,

Italian exports, in terms of volume, have increased much more than what could be

seen from the previous historical data, which was deflated with rudimentary mean

unit values, and could not account for the fundamental structural and qualitative

changes, which from 2000 onwards characterized Italian exports. The changes

mostly regarded traditional products in personal and household goods, the most

aggressively attacked by asymmetrical Asian competition. Italian companies

quickly responded by focusing on higher quality in smaller volumes for the wearing

apparel, footwear and furniture sectors, and shifted toward improved industrial

engineering products. The latter sector has continued to grow in size and importance, even more than the original traditional products themselves, to the point that

today, the Italian foreign trade surplus in mechanical engineering and metal

products is far greater than fashion, furniture and food combined. If one were to

use, as a deflator, the most significant export prices, rather than the mean values of



190



M. Fortis and M. Carminati



Table 3.5 Exports of manufactured goods of G-7 countries, China and South Korea: 1980–2014

% change

1980–1990

China

South

Korea

Canada

Germany

Italy



132.4

76.8

11.7

5.9

4.0



% change

1990–2000

China

South

Korea

Canada

United

States

France



153.0

30.3

22.2

13.9

−13.8



% change

2000–2014

China

South

Korea

Germany

Italy

United

States

France

United

Kingdom

Japan

Canada



283.6

22.3

2.1

−21.3

−31.3



Japan

2.4

Japan

−16.7

−36.0

United

−6.7

United

−19.0

−42.3

States

Kingdom

France

−9.1

Italy

−26.8

−49.1

United

−14.9

Germany

−34.4

−53.7

Kingdom

Relative changes for Italy are indicated in bold font

% changes in the share of each country in world exports of manufactured goods in the three

sub-periods, calculated in current dollars

Source Compiled by Fondazione Edison using data from WTO (2015)



exported units, Italian export growth in terms of volume would be greater than

France and the UK, contrary to what the old historical data series showed.6 Thus,

the claims that Italy’s international competitiveness is declining are false.



3.4



The Italian Industrial Manufacturing System—“Made

in Italy” Macro-sectors of Outstanding Products



After having gone through the main historical phases of Italian industrialization and

export trends, it is time to concentrate on one of two aspects which most characterize the Italian manufacturing system. The first, Industrial Districts,7 was amply

described in Chap. 2. The second, which regards the 4Fs of outstanding Italian

manufacturing, will be described in this chapter. These four macro-sectors have the



6



The old and new data series of Italian exports in terms of volume begin to diverge significantly

from 2003 onwards, when the fashion and furniture sectors, after the Chinese “tsunami”, focused

on higher value added segments of mechanical engineering and metal products. They increasingly

became cutting-edge “Made in Italy” products, thus, more than compensating for the strain felt by

the more traditional sectors.

7

For greater detail on Industrial Districts and other insights, see Fortis (2001), and Fortis and

Quadrio Curzio (2006).



3 Development Profiles of the Italian Industrial System …



191



highest degree of specialization and have characterized Italian excellence the most

since World War II.



“Made in Italy” Specializations: The 4Fs



3.4.1



A particular aspect of the Italian manufacturing industry, which for a long time was

a winning strategy, even if today it is no longer perceived as sufficient for facing

new challenges, is specializing in the so-called traditional sectors (Fashion-textiles,

Footwear-leather, Furniture-wood). These sectors are characterized by a significant

foreign trade surplus. Other sectors were later added like mechanical engineering,

processing of plastics and rubber, and means of transport other than cars.

The historical trend of Italian manufacturing (Fig. 3.1) can be reconstructed with

Istat data available from 1991 and divided in two periods: 1991–2010 and 2011–

2014. It is clearly evident, from the first period, that there were two intermediate

peaks preceding the economic crisis. The first was in 1996 with a foreign trade

surplus of €55 billion after the Italian economy had experienced constant growth for

three years, from 1993 to 1995. The devaluation of the Italian lira noticeably helped

exports. The second peak was in 2008, right before what has revealed to be the

worst worldwide economic and financial crisis since 1929.

The first peak was followed by a period of decreasing trade surplus of Italian

manufactured products in conjunction with the preparatory phase for introducing

the euro. There was a temporary increase in the 2001 trade balance, followed by a



98.9



100



80



billion



62.7

60



54.9



40

37.9



20

7.9

0

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014



Fig. 3.1 Italy’s foreign trade balance of manufactured goods: 1991–2014. Source Compiled by

Fondazione Edison using data from Istat (2015a)



Tài liệu bạn tìm kiếm đã sẵn sàng tải về

3 Manufacturing Exports from the Unification of Italy to the Present—Growth Trends and International Comparisons

Tải bản đầy đủ ngay(0 tr)

×