Tải bản đầy đủ - 0 (trang)
Figure 4. The personal income tax reform has supported private consumption

Figure 4. The personal income tax reform has supported private consumption

Tải bản đầy đủ - 0trang

OECD Economic Surveys: Luxembourg



30



Figure 5. Employment and unemployment1



Per cent



Per cent



20



20

A. Employment growth rate (2)



18



Dependent employment (domestic concept)

National employment



Employment of cross-border workers

Real GDP, growth rate



18



16



16



14



14



12



12



10



10



8



8



6



6



4



4



2



2



0



1997



1998



1999



2000



2001



2002



Per cent



0



Per cent



5.5



5.5

B. Unemployment rate (3)



5.0



National definition

Broad unemployment



Standardised rate



5.0



4.5



4.5



4.0



4.0



3.5



3.5



3.0



3.0



2.5



2.5



2.0



2.0



1.5



1997



1998



1999



2000



2001



2002



1.5



1. Seasonally adjusted.

2. 5-month centred moving average, month-on-month percentage changes at annual rates.

3. The national definition measures job seekers, registered with the national employment office. The broad concept

adds to registrations persons on work schemes or enrolled in training sponsored by the employment office.

Source: STATEC and OECD.



© OECD 2003



Economic developments and policy challenges



31



total domestic employment still grew by as much on average in 2001 as in 2000

(5.6 per cent), reflecting rising employment growth rates in the course of 2000, it

slowed significantly in 2002, to 3.1 per cent. The fading in monthly growth rates

was remarkably gradual compared with the sharp drop in overall activity. Apparently, having experienced bottlenecks in the recent past, employers in a number

of sectors kept filling vacancies for fear of not finding enough staff during the next

upswing. Hiring went on at a brisk pace in the public sector (public administration,

health care and social services) (Figure 6), not least boosted by strong increases in

public expenditure (see Chapter II). By contrast, the manufacturing sector had

lower employment in December 2002 than one year before and the financial

sector during the second half of 2002 lost the slight employment gains it



Figure 6. Employment by sector

Persons



Persons



4000

3500



4000

Dec 1999-Dec 2000

Dec 2000-Dec 2001

Dec 2001-Dec 2002



3500



3000



3000



2500



2500



2000



2000



1500



1500



1000



1000



500



500



0



0



-500



-500

A



B



C



D



E



F



G



H



Notes: A: Manufacturing, mining and quarrying, electricity, gas and water supply (weight: 0.13).

B: Construction (weight: 0.11).

C: Trade, repair, hotels and restaurants (weight: 0.18).

D: Transport and communications (weight: 0.09).

E: Financial intermediation and insurance (weight: 0.13).

F: Real estate, renting and business activities (weight: 0.13).

G: Public administration and education (weight: 0.13).

H: Health and social work, community, social and personal services and private households with employed

persons (weight: 0.10).

Source: Inspection générale de la sécurité sociale (IGSS).



© OECD 2003



OECD Economic Surveys: Luxembourg



32



accumulated earlier in the year. As at around previous cyclical turning points,

growth in employment of cross-border workers has displayed more variation than

that in national employment (employment of residents). It has, however,

stabilised at a still robust rate of growth of about 4 per cent since spring 2002.

The counterpart of the sluggish adjustment of employment to the

economic downturn has been a steep decline in labour productivity (Figure 7).

Real GDP per person employed fell by more than 4 per cent in 2001, the sharpest

drop since the aftermath of the first oil-price shock. With labour market adjustments gradually setting in, labour productivity shrank again in 2002, albeit to a

lesser extent.3 The pattern of stronger ups and downs in labour productivity

reflects a number of factors. First, output grows more strongly on average than

elsewhere and fluctuates more strongly, making it worthwhile for employers to

keep workers during a period of weakness given that the subsequent upswing

could be very strong and filling vacancies could be costly. This rationale is

strengthened by labour market institutions granting high employment protection

and discouraging the use of temporary contracts. Second, there is a high share of

services in the economy which are typically characterised by non-storability.

Finally, locally increasing returns to scale4 generally tend to be greater in the

production of most financial services than in most other economic activities.5



Figure 7. Labour productivity in the business sector

Per cent change over previous period

Per cent



Per cent



10



10

Luxembourg

Belgium

France



8



Germany

EU-15

United States



8



6



6



4



4



2



2



0



0



-2



-2



-4



-4



-6



1991



1992



1993



1994



1995



1996



1997



1998



1999



2000



2001



2002



-6



Source: OECD.



© OECD 2003



Economic developments and policy challenges



33



Unemployment among residents has risen

The national unemployment rate (national definition based on registrations) rose rapidly from 2.6 per cent at the end of 2001 – a level very close the

all-time low – to 3.5 per cent in early 2003 (Figure 5, Panel B). Including persons on

work schemes or enrolled in training sponsored by the employment office,

(broad) unemployment has increased from 3½ to 5 per cent over the same period,

a level not reached at any time in the past six years.

Underlying inflation has come down…

Softer labour market conditions contributed to a gradual easing of wage

pressures during the past two years. In 2001 this effect was counter-balanced by pay

rises related to automatic wage indexation, but in 2002 wage increases came down

markedly, reflecting the deceleration in inflation during 2001 (Table 5). Indexation

thresholds were breached on 1 June 2000, 1 March 2001 and 1 May 2002, leading to

automatic wage increases by 2.5 per cent one month after each breach.6 During the

year 2002 headline inflation was broadly stable at a little above 2 per cent, as underlying inflation decreased and energy prices increased, and was roughly in line with

the euro area average after having exceeded it in 2000. The decline in underlying

inflation (HICP less food and energy), from 2.6 per cent in 2001 to 2.3 per cent

in 2002, has been attenuated by the introduction of euro coins and notes, which is

estimated to have added 0.7 percentage points to inflation from January 2001 to

July 2002 (BCL 2003, pp. 32-35).7 Underlying inflation has been running at an annual

rate of around 2 per cent in early 2003.



Table 5.



The contribution of indexation to average wage increases

Percentage change

Indexation



Other



Total



1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002



0.8

2.3

0.2

1.0

2.7

3.1

2.1



1.0

0.6

1.5

2.0

1.6

2.4

1.0



1.8

2.9

1.7

3.0

4.3

5.5

3.1



Half-years

2001 I

2001 II

2002 I

2002 II



3.8

2.5

1.7

2.5



2.8

1.9

1.2

0.9



6.6

4.4

2.9

3.4



Source:



Inspection générale de la sécurité sociale (IGSS), calculations by STATEC.



© OECD 2003



Tài liệu bạn tìm kiếm đã sẵn sàng tải về

Figure 4. The personal income tax reform has supported private consumption

Tải bản đầy đủ ngay(0 tr)

×