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6 Saving, investment and the current account balance

6 Saving, investment and the current account balance

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Chapter 18  The goods market in an open economy   383







components using the assumptions that we have made about consumption, investment,

exports and imports. That is, we need to do the complete analysis laid out in this chapter. Using only equation (18.5) can, if you are not careful, be very misleading. To see how

misleading, consider, for example, the following argument (which is so common that you

may have read something similar in the newspapers): ‘It is clear the United Kingdom cannot

reduce its large current account deficit through a depreciation.’ Look at equation (18.5). It

shows that the current account deficit is equal to investment minus saving. Why should a

depreciation affect either saving or investment? So how can a depreciation affect the current

account deficit?

The argument might sound convincing, but we know it is wrong. We showed that a depreciation leads to an improvement in a country’s trade position and by implication, given net

income and transfers, an improvement in the current account. So what is wrong with the

argument? A depreciation actually does affect saving and investment. It does so by affecting the demand for domestic goods, thereby increasing output. Higher output leads to an

increase in saving over investment or, equivalently, to a decrease in the current account

deficit.

A good way of making sure that you understand the material in this section is to go back

and look at the various cases we have considered, from changes in government spending, to

changes in foreign output, to combinations of depreciation and fiscal contraction, and so on.

Trace what happens in each case to each of the four components of equation (18.5): private

saving, public saving (equivalently, the budget surplus), investment and the current account



balance. Make sure, as always, that you can tell the story in words.

Let us end the chapter with a challenge. Assess the following three statements about the

US trade deficit – the largest by far in the world – and decide which one(s) is (are) right:













Suppose, for example, that the government wants to reduce the current

account deficit without changing the

level of output, so it uses a combination

of depreciation and fiscal contraction.

What happens to private saving, public

saving and investment?



The US current account deficit shows that the US is no longer competitive (see Chapter 17). It is a sign of weakness. Forget saving, or investment. The United States must

urgently improve its competitiveness.

The US current account deficit shows that the United States just does not save enough to

finance its investment. It is a sign of weakness. Forget competitiveness. The United States

must urgently increase its saving rate.

The US current account deficit is just a mirror image of the US capital account surplus.

What is happening is that the rest of the world wants to put its funds in the United States.

The US capital account surplus and, by implication, the US current account deficit are in

fact a sign of strength, and there is no need to take policy measures to reduce it.



Summary





In an open economy, the demand for domestic goods is

equal to the domestic demand for goods (consumption,

plus investment, plus government spending) minus the

value of imports (in terms of domestic goods), plus exports.







In an open economy, an increase in domestic demand

leads to a smaller increase in output than it would in a

closed economy because some of the additional demand

falls on imports. For the same reason, an increase in

domestic demand also leads to a deterioration of the

trade balance.







An increase in foreign demand leads, as a result of

increased exports, to both an increase in domestic output

and an improvement of the trade balance.







Because increases in foreign demand improve the trade

balance and increases in domestic demand worsen the

trade balance, countries might be tempted to wait for



M18 Macroeconomics 85678.indd 383



increases in foreign demand to move them out of a recession. When a group of countries is in recession, coordination can, in principle, help their recovery.





If the Marshall–Lerner condition is satisfied – and the

empirical evidence indicates that it is – a real depreciation leads to an improvement in net exports.







A real depreciation leads first to a deterioration of the

trade balance and then to an improvement. This adjustment process is known as the J-curve.







The condition for equilibrium in the goods market can

be rewritten as the condition that saving (public and

private) minus investment must be equal to the current

account balance. A current account surplus corresponds

to an excess of saving over investment. A current account

deficit usually corresponds to an excess of investment

over saving.



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384  EXTENSIONS The open economy



Key terms

demand for domestic

goods 366



domestic demand for

goods 366

policy coordination 375



G20 375



import compression 379



Marshall–Lerner

condition 377



J-curve 380



Questions and problems

Quick Check

All ‘Quick check’ questions and problems are available on

MyEconLab.

1.Using the information in this chapter, label each of the following statements true, false or uncertain. Explain briefly.

a. The current US trade deficit is the result of unusually high

investment, not the result of a decline in national saving.

b. The national income identity implies that budget deficits

cause trade deficits.

c. Opening the economy to trade tends to increase the multiplier because an increase in expenditure leads to more

exports.

d.If the trade deficit is equal to zero, then the domestic

demand for goods and the demand for domestic goods are

equal.

e. A real depreciation leads to an immediate improvement in

the trade balance.

f. A small open economy can reduce its trade deficit through

fiscal contraction at a smaller cost in output than can a

large open economy.

g. The experience of the United States in the 1990s shows

that real exchange rate appreciations lead to trade deficits and real exchange rate depreciations lead to trade

surpluses.

h.A decline in real income can lead to a decline in imports

and thus a trade surplus.

2.Real and nominal exchange rates and inflation

Using the definition of the real exchange rate (and Propositions

7 and 8 in Appendix 2), you can show that:

(et - et - 1)

(E t - E t - 1)

=

+ pt - pt*

et - 1

Et - 1



b.Suppose the real exchange rate is currently at the level

required for net exports (or the current account) to equal

zero. In this case, if domestic inflation is higher than foreign inflation, what must happen over time to maintain a

trade balance of zero?

3.A European recession and the US economy

a. In 2014, EU spending on US goods accounted for 18% of

US exports (see Table 17.2) and US exports amounted to

15% of US GDP (see Table 17.1). What was the share of

EU spending on US goods relative to US GDP?

b.Assume that the multiplier in the United States is 2 and

that a major slump in Europe would reduce output and

imports from the United States by 5% (relative to its normal level). Given your answer to part (a), what is the

impact on US GDP of the European slump?

c. If the European slump also leads to a slowdown of the

other economies that import goods from the United

States, the effect could be larger. To put a bound on the

size of the effect, assume that US exports decrease by 5%

(as a result of changes in foreign output) in one year. What

is the effect of a 5% drop in exports on US GDP?

d.Comment on this statement: ‘Unless Europe can avoid a

major slump following the problems with sovereign debt

and the euro, US growth will grind to a halt.’

4.A further look at Table 18.1

Table  18.1 has four entries. Using Figure  18.5 as a guide,

draw the situations illustrated in each of the four entries in

Table 18.1. Be sure you understand why the direction of change

in government spending and the real exchange rate is labelled

as ambiguous in each entry.



Dig Deeper



In words, the percentage real appreciation equals the percentage

nominal appreciation plus the difference between domestic and

foreign inflation.



All ‘Dig deeper’ questions and problems are available on

MyEconLab.



a. If domestic inflation is higher than foreign inflation, and

the domestic country has a fixed exchange rate, what happens to the real exchange rate over time? Assume that the

Marshall–Lerner condition holds. What happens to the

trade balance over time? Explain in words.



5.Net exports and foreign demand



M18 Macroeconomics 85678.indd 384



a.Suppose there is an increase in foreign output. Show

the effect on the domestic economy (i.e. replicate

Figure 18.4). What is the effect on domestic output? And

on domestic net exports?



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Chapter 18  The goods market in an open economy   385







b. If the interest rate remains constant, what will happen to

domestic investment? If taxes are fixed, what will happen

to the domestic budget deficit?



e. Suppose one of the economies is much larger than the

other. Which economy do you expect to have the larger

value of m 1? Explain.



c. Using equation (18.5), what must happen to private saving? Explain.



f. Calculate your answers to parts (b) and (c) for each economy by substituting the appropriate parameter values.



d. Foreign output does not appear in equation (18.5), yet it

evidently affects net exports. Explain how this is possible.



g. In which economy will fiscal policy have a larger effect on

output? In which economy will fiscal policy have a larger

effect on net exports?



6.Eliminating a trade deficit

a. Consider an economy with a trade deficit (NX 6 0) and

with output equal to its natural level. Suppose that, even

though output may deviate from its natural level in the

short run, it returns to its natural level in the medium run.

Assume that the natural level is unaffected by the real

exchange rate. What must happen to the real exchange

rate over the medium run to eliminate the trade deficit

(i.e. to increase NX to zero)?



8.Policy coordination and the world economy



b.Now write down the national income identity. Assume

again that output returns to its natural level in the medium

run. If NX increases to zero, what must happen to domestic

demand (C + I + G) in the medium run? What government policies are available to reduce domestic demand in

the medium run? Identify which components of domestic

demand each of these policies affects.



Imports and exports are given by:



7.Multipliers, openness and fiscal policy

Consider an open economy characterised by the following

equations:

C = c0 + c1(Y - T)

I = d 0 + d 1Y

IM = m 1Y

X = x 1Y*

The parameters m 1 and x 1 are the propensities to import and

export. Assume that the real exchange rate is fixed at a value

of 1 and treat foreign income, Y*, as fixed. Also assume that

taxes are fixed and that government purchases are exogenous

(i.e. decided by the government). We explore the effectiveness

of changes in G under alternative assumptions about the propensity to import.

a. Write the equilibrium condition in the market for domestic

goods and solve for Y.

b.Suppose government purchases increase by one

unit. What is the effect on output? (Assume that

0 6 m 1 6 c1 + d 1 6 1. Explain why.)

c. How do net exports change when government purchases

increase by one unit?

d. Now consider two economies, one with m 1 = 0.5 and the

other with m 1 = 0.1. Each economy is characterised by

(c1 + d 1) = 0.6.



M18 Macroeconomics 85678.indd 385



Consider an open economy in which the real exchange rate is

fixed and equal to one. Consumption, investment, government

spending and taxes are given by:

C = 10 + 0.8(Y - T)

I = 10, G = 10 and T = 10



IM = 0.3Y and X = 0.3Y*

where Y* denotes foreign output.

a. Solve for equilibrium output in the domestic economy,

given Y*. What is the multiplier in this economy? If we

were to close the economy – so exports and imports were

identically equal to zero – what would the multiplier

be? Why would the multiplier be different in a closed

economy?

b. Assume that the foreign economy is characterised by the

same equations as the domestic economy (with asterisks

reversed). Use the two sets of equations to solve for the

equilibrium output of each country. (Hint: Use the equations for the foreign economy to solve for Y* as a function

of Y and substitute this solution for Y* in part (a).) What

is the multiplier for each country now? Why is it different

from the open economy multiplier in part (a)?

c. Assume that the domestic government, G, has a target

level of output of 125. Assuming that the foreign government does not change G*, what is the increase in G

necessary to achieve the target output in the domestic

economy? Solve for net exports and the budget deficit in

each country.

d.Suppose each government has a target level of output

of 125 and that each government increases government

spending by the same amount. What is the common

increase in G and G* necessary to achieve the target output in both countries? Solve for net exports and the budget

deficit in each country.

e. Why is fiscal coordination, such as the common increase

in G and G* in part (d), difficult to achieve in practice?



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386  EXTENSIONS The open economy

Explore Further

9.The US trade deficit, current account deficit and

investment



c. The trade surplus in 1980 was roughly zero. Compute

the average percentage of GDP invested and the averaged value of the trade balance as a percentage of GDP in

three periods: 1980–1989, 1990–1999, 2000 to the latest

point. Would it appear that trade deficits have been used to

finance investment?



a. Define national saving as private saving plus the government surplus, that is as S + T - G. Now, using equation  (18.5), describe the relation between the current

account deficit, net investment income, and the difference

between national saving and domestic investment.



d. Is a trade deficit more worrisome when not accompanied

by a corresponding increase in investment? Explain your

answer.



b.Using the FRED economic database retrieve annual

data for nominal GDP (series GDP), gross domestic

investment (series GDPIA) and net exports (series

A019RC1A027NBEA) from 1980 to the most recent

year available. Divide gross domestic investment and

net exports by GDP in each year to express their values

as a percentage of GDP. What year has the largest trade

deficit as a percentage of GDP?



e. The previous question focuses on the trade deficit rather

than the current account deficit. How does net investment

income (NI) relate to the difference between the trade deficit and the current account deficit in the United States? You

can download GDP (series GDP) and GNP (series GNP) from

the FRED database at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

This difference is a measure of NI. Is this value rising or falling over time? What is the implication of such changes?



Log on to MyEconLab and complete the study plan exercises for this chapter to see

how much you have learnt, and where you need to revise most.



Further Reading





A good discussion of the relation among trade deficits, current account deficits, budget deficits, private saving and

investment is given in Barry Bosworth’s Saving and Investment in a Global Economy (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1993).



M18 Macroeconomics 85678.indd 386







For more on the relation between the exchange rate and the

trade balance, read ‘Exchange rates and trade flows: disconnected?’, International Monetary Fund, October 2015,

Chapter 3.



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Chapter 18  The goods market in an open economy   387







APPENDIX



Derivation of the Marshall–Lerner condition

Start from the definition of net exports:

NX = X - IM/e

Assume trade to be initially balanced, so that NX = 0 and X = IM/e or, equivalently,

eX = IM.

The Marshall–Lerner condition is the condition under which a real depreciation, a decrease

in U, leads to an increase in net exports.

To derive this condition, first multiply both sides of the equation above by e to get:

eNX = eX - IM

Now consider a change in the real exchange rate of ∆e. The effect of the change in the real

exchange rate on the left side of the equation is given by (∆e)NX + e∆(NX).

Note that, if trade is initially balanced, NX = 0, so the first term in this expression is equal

to zero and the effect of the change on the left side is simply given by e∆(NX).

The effect of the change in the real exchange rate on the right side of the equation is given

by (∆e)X + e∆(X) - (∆IM). Putting the two sides together gives:

e(∆NX) = (∆e)X + e(∆X) - (∆IM)

Divide both sides by eX to get:

[(e∆NX)]/(eX) = [(e∆)X]/(eX) + [(e∆X)]/(eX) - [∆IM]/(eX)

Simplify and use the fact that, if trade is initially balanced, eX = IM to replace eX by IM

in the last term on the right. This gives:

(∆NX)/X = (∆e)/e + (∆X)/X - ∆IM/IM

The change in the trade balance (as a ratio to exports) in response to a real depreciation

is equal to the sum of three terms:

● The first term is equal to the proportional change in the real exchange rate. It is negative

if there is a real depreciation.

● The second term is equal to the proportional change in exports. It is positive if there is a

real depreciation.

● The third term is equal to minus the proportional change in the imports. It is positive if

there is a real depreciation.

The Marshall–Lerner condition is the condition that the sum of these three terms be positive. If it is satisfied, a real depreciation leads to an improvement in the trade balance.

A numerical example will help here. Suppose that a 1% depreciation leads to a proportional increase in exports of 0.9% and to a proportional decrease in imports of 0.8%. (Econometric evidence on the relation of exports and imports to the real exchange rate suggests

that these are indeed reasonable numbers.) In this case, the right-hand side of the equation

is equal to - 1% + 0.9% - ( - 0.8%) = 0.7%. Thus, the trade balance improves and the

Marshall–Lerner condition is satisfied.



M18 Macroeconomics 85678.indd 387



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Chapter



19



Output, the interest rate

and the exchange rate

Previously, we treated the exchange rate as one of the policy instruments available to the government (see Chapter 18). But the exchange rate is not a policy instrument. Rather, it is determined

in the foreign exchange market – a market where, as we saw, there is an enormous amount of

trading (see Chapter 17). This fact raises two obvious questions: What determines the exchange

rate? And how can policy makers affect it?

These questions motivate this chapter. To answer them, we reintroduce financial markets, which

we had left aside earlier in the text. We examine the implications of equilibrium in both the goods

market and financial markets, including the foreign exchange market. This allows us to characterise the joint movements of output, the interest rate and the exchange rate in an open economy.

The model we develop is an extension to the open economy of our IS–LM model and known as

the Mundell–Fleming model – after the two economists, Robert Mundell and Marcus Fleming,

who first put it together in the 1960s. (The model presented here retains the spirit of the original

Mundell–Fleming model but differs in its details.)





Section 19.1 looks at equilibrium in the goods market.







Section 19.2 looks at equilibrium in financial markets, including the foreign exchange market.







Section 19.3 puts the two equilibrium conditions together and looks at the determination of

output, the interest rate and the exchange rate.







Section 19.4 looks at the role of policy under flexible exchange rates.







Section 19.5 looks at the role of policy under fixed exchange rates.



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Chapter 19  Output, the interest rate and the exchange rate   389







19.1 Equilibrium in the goods market

Equilibrium in the goods market was the focus in the previous chapter, where we derived the

equilibrium condition equation (18.4):

Y = C(Y - T) + I(Y, r) + G - IM(Y, e)/e + X(Y*, e)

(+)

(+, -)

(+, +)

(+, -)













We shall assume, throughout the text

here, that the Marshall–Lerner condition holds. Under this condition, an

increase in the real exchange rate – a

real appreciation – leads to a decrease

in net exports (see Chapter 18).











Goods market equilibrium (IS):

Output = demand for domestic goods.















For the goods market to be in equilibrium, output (the left side of the equation) must be

equal to the demand for domestic goods (the right side of the equation). The demand for

domestic goods is equal to consumption, C, plus investment, I, plus government spending,

G, minus the value of imports, IM/e, plus exports, X.



First simplification: P = P* = 1, so

e = E.



Consumption, C, depends positively on disposable income, Y - T.

Investment, I, depends positively on output, Y, and negatively on the real interest rate, r.

Government spending, G, is taken as given.

The quantity of imports, IM, depends positively on both output, Y, and the real exchange

rate, e. The value of imports in terms of domestic goods is equal to the quantity of imports

divided by the real exchange rate.

Exports, X, depend positively on foreign output, Y*, and negatively on the real exchange

rate, e.



It will be convenient in what follows to regroup the last two terms under ‘net exports’,

defined as exports minus the value of imports:

NX(Y, Y*, e) = X(Y*, e) - IM(Y, e)/e

It follows from our assumptions about imports and exports that net exports, NX, depend

on domestic output, Y, foreign output, Y*, and the real exchange rate, e. An increase in

domestic output increases imports, thus decreasing net exports. An increase in foreign output

increases exports, thus increasing net exports. An increase in the real exchange rate leads to

a decrease in net exports.

Using this definition of net exports, we can rewrite the equilibrium condition as:

Y = C(Y - T) + I(Y, r) + G - NX(Y, Y*, e)

[19.1]

(+)

(+, -)

(-, +, -)







For our purposes, the main implication of equation (19.1) is that both the real interest rate

and the real exchange rate affect demand, and in turn equilibrium output:









An increase in the real interest rate leads to a decrease in investment spending and, as a

result, to a decrease in the demand for domestic goods. This leads, through the multiplier,

to a decrease in output.

An increase in the real exchange rate leads to a shift in demand towards foreign goods and,

as a result, to a decrease in net exports. The decrease in net exports decreases the demand

for domestic goods. This leads, through the multiplier, to a decrease in output.

For the remainder of our discussion here we shall simplify equation (19.1) in two ways:







Given our focus on the short run, we assumed in our previous treatment of the IS–LM

model that the (domestic) price level was given. We shall make the same assumption

here and extend this assumption to the foreign price level, so the real exchange rate

e = EP/P* and the nominal exchange rate E move together. A decrease in the nominal exchange rate – a nominal depreciation – leads, one for one, to a decrease in

the real exchange rate – a real depreciation. Conversely, an increase in the nominal

exchange rate – a nominal appreciation – leads, one for one, to an increase in the

real exchange rate – a real appreciation. If, for notational convenience, we choose P

and P* so that P/P* = 1 (and we can do so because both are index numbers), then

e = E and we can replace e by E in equation (19.1).



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390  EXTENSIONS The open economy





Second simplification: pe = 0, so

r = i.







With these two simplifications, equation (19.1) becomes:





By now, you know that the way to

understand various macroeconomic

mechanisms is to refine the basic

model in one direction and simplify it

in others (here, opening the economy

but ignoring risk). Keeping all the

refinements would lead to a rich model

(and this is what macroeconometric

models do), but would make for a terrible text. Things would become far too

complicated.



Because we take the domestic price level as given, there is no inflation, neither actual

nor expected. Therefore, the nominal interest rate and the real interest rate are the

same, and we can replace the real interest rate, r, in equation (19.1) by the nominal

interest rate, i.







Y = C(Y - T) + I(Y, i) + G + NX(Y, Y*, E)

[19.2]

(+)

(+, -)

(-, +, -)



In words, goods-market equilibrium implies that output depends negatively on both the

nominal interest rate and the nominal exchange rate.



19.2 Equilibrium in financial markets

When we looked at financial markets in the IS–LM model, we assumed that people chose

only between two financial assets, money and bonds. Now that we look at a financially open

economy, we must also take into account the fact that people have a choice between domestic

bonds and foreign bonds.



Domestic bonds versus foreign bonds

As we look at the choice between domestic bonds and foreign bonds, we shall rely on the

assumption we introduced earlier: that financial investors, domestic or foreign, go for the

highest expected rate of return, ignoring risk (see Chapter 17). This implies that, in equilibrium, both domestic bonds and foreign bonds must have the same expected rate of return;

otherwise, investors would be willing to hold only one or the other, but not both, and this

could not be an equilibrium. (Like all economic relations, this relation is only an approximation to reality and does not always hold. More on this in the first Focus box below.)

As we saw in equation (17.2), this assumption implies that the following arbitrage relation – the interest parity condition – must hold:





Et

(1 + it) = (1 + i t*) a e b [19.3]

Et + 1



where it is the domestic interest rate, i t* is the foreign interest rate, E t is the current

exchange rate and E et + 1 is the future expected exchange rate. The left side of the equation

gives the return, in terms of domestic currency, from holding domestic bonds. The right

side of the equation gives the expected return, also in terms of domestic currency, from



The presence of Et comes from the fact

holding foreign bonds. In equilibrium, the two expected returns must be equal.

that, to buy the foreign bond, you must

Multiply both sides by E et + 1 and rearrange to get:

first exchange domestic currency for

foreign currency. The presence of E et + 1

comes from the fact that, to bring the

funds back next period, you will have to

exchange foreign currency for domestic

currency.











1 + i t*



E et + 1[19.4]



E =



1 + i e

E [19.5]

1 + i*



This relation tells us that the current exchange rate depends on the domestic interest rate,

on the foreign interest rate and on the expected future exchange rate:







M19 Macroeconomics 85678.indd 390



1 + it



For now, we shall take the expected future exchange rate as given and denote it as E e (we

shall relax this assumption later (see Chapter 20)). Under this assumption, and dropping

time indexes, the interest parity condition becomes:





Remember that we have assumed that

people are not willing to hold domestic

or foreign currency on its own.



Et =



An increase in the domestic interest rate leads to an increase in the exchange rate.

An increase in the foreign interest rate leads to a decrease in the exchange rate.



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Chapter 19  Output, the interest rate and the exchange rate   391









An increase in the expected future exchange rate leads to an increase in the current

exchange rate.



This relation plays a central role in the real world and will play a central role in this chapter. To understand the relation further, consider the following example.

Consider financial investors – investors, for short – choosing between UK bonds and German bonds. Suppose that the one-year interest rate on UK bonds is 2% and the one-year

interest rate on German bonds is also 2%. Suppose that the current exchange rate is 1 (one

pound is worth 1 euro) and the expected exchange rate a year from now is also 1. Under

these assumptions, both UK and German bonds have the same expected return in dollars,

and the interest parity condition holds.

Suppose that investors now expect the exchange rate to be 10% higher a year from now,

so E e is now equal to 1.1. At an unchanged current exchange rate, UK bonds are now much

more attractive than German bonds. UK bonds offer an interest rate of 2% in dollars. German bonds still offer an interest rate of 2% in yen, but the yen a year from today is expected

to be worth 10% less in terms of dollars. In terms of pounds, the return on German bonds is

therefore 2% (the interest rate) - 10% (the expected depreciation of the euro relative to the

pound), or - 8%.

So what will happen to the current exchange rate? At the initial exchange rate of 1, investors want to shift out of German bonds into UK bonds. To do so, they must first sell German

bonds for yen, then sell euros for pounds and then use the pounds to buy UK bonds. As

investors sell euros and buy pounds, the pound appreciates relative to the euro. By how

much? Equation (19.5) gives us the answer: E = (1.02/1.02)110 = 110. The current

exchange rate must increase in the same proportion as the expected future exchange rate.

Put another way, the pound must appreciate today by 10%. When it has appreciated by 10%,

so E = E e = 110, the expected returns on UK and German bonds are again equal, and there

is equilibrium in the foreign exchange market.

Suppose instead that the Bank of England raises the domestic interest rate in the UK

from 2 to 5%. Assume that the German interest rate remains unchanged at 2% and that the

expected future exchange rate remains unchanged at 1. At an unchanged current exchange

rate, UK bonds are now again much more attractive than German bonds. UK bonds yield

a return of 5% in pounds. German bonds give a return of 2% in euros and – because the

exchange rate is expected to be the same next year as it is today – an expected return of 5%

in pounds as well.

So what will happen to the current exchange rate? Again, at the initial exchange rate of

1, investors want to shift out of German bonds into UK bonds. As they do so, they sell euros

for pounds, and the pound appreciates. By how much? Equation (19.5) gives the answer:

E = (1.05/1.02)100 ≈ 103. The current exchange rate increases by approximately 3%.

Why 3%? Think of what happens when the pound appreciates. If, as we have assumed,

investors do not change their expectation of the future exchange rate, then the more the

pound appreciates today, the more investors expect it to depreciate in the future (as it is

expected to return to the same value in the future). When the pound has appreciated by

3% today, investors expect it to depreciate by 3% during the coming year. Equivalently,

they expect the euro to appreciate relative to the pound by 3% over the coming year. The

expected rate of return in pounds from holding German bonds is therefore 2% (the interest

rate in euros) + 3% (the expected euro appreciation), or 5%. This expected rate of return

is the same as the rate of return on holding UK bonds, so there is equilibrium in the foreign ➤ Make sure you understand the argument. Why does the pound not appreciexchange market.

Note that our argument relies heavily on the assumption that, when the interest rate ate by, say, 20%?

changes, the expected exchange rate remains unchanged. This implies that an appreciation today leads to an expected depreciation in the future because the exchange rate is

expected to return to the same, unchanged, value. We shall later relax the assumption that

the future expected exchange rate is fixed (see Chapter 20). But the basic conclusion will

remain: An increase in the domestic interest rate relative to the foreign interest rate leads to

an appreciation.



M19 Macroeconomics 85678.indd 391



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392  EXTENSIONS The open economy

Figure 19.1 plots the relation between the domestic interest rate, i, and the exchange rate,

E, implied by equation (19.5) – the interest parity relation. The relation is drawn for a given

expected future exchange rate, E e, and a given foreign interest rate, i*, and is represented by

an upward-sloping line. The higher the domestic interest rate, the higher the exchange rate.

Equation (19.5) also implies that when the domestic interest rate is equal to the foreign interest rate (i = i*), the exchange rate is equal to the expected future exchange rate (E = E e).

This implies that the line corresponding to the interest parity condition goes through point



What happens to the line if: (1) i*

A (where i = i*) in the figure.

increases; and (2) Ee increases?



Figure 19.1

The relation between

the interest rate and the

exchange rate implied by

interest parity



Domestic interest rate, i



Interest parity relation

(given i *, E e )



i*



A higher domestic interest rate

leads to a higher exchange rate – an

appreciation.



A



Ee

Exchange rate, E



Focus



Sudden stops, safe havens and the limits to the interest parity condition

The interest parity condition assumes that financial investors care only about expected returns. As we discussed

previously (in Chapter 14), investors care not only about

expected returns, but also about risk and liquidity. Much

of the time, one can ignore these other factors. Sometimes,

however, these factors play a big role in investors’ decisions

and in determining exchange rate movements.

As shown in Figure 19.2, capital flows, captured here

by equity inflows – purchases of emerging market firms’

stocks by foreigners – to emerging market countries, have

been volatile since the beginning of the crisis. Volatile capital flows are an issue that many emerging countries know

well and often reflect changes in investors’ perceptions of

risk rather than changes in relative interest rates.

Perceptions of risk play an important role in the decision

of foreign investors, such as pension funds, to invest or not

invest in their country. Sometimes, the perception that risk

has increased leads investors to want to sell all the assets

they have in the country, no matter what the interest rate.

These selling episodes, which have affected many Latin

American and Asian emerging economies in the past, are

known as sudden stops. During these episodes, the interest parity condition fails, and the exchange rate of these



M19 Macroeconomics 85678.indd 392



emerging market countries may decrease a lot, without

much change in domestic or foreign interest rates.

Indeed, the start of the crisis was associated with large

capital movements which had little to do with expected

returns. Worried about uncertainty, many investors from

advanced countries decided to take their funds home,

where they felt safer. The result was large capital outflows

from a number of emerging countries, leading to strong

downward pressure on their exchange rates and serious

financial problems. For example, some domestic banks that

had relied on foreign investors for funds found themselves

short of funds, which forced them in turn to cut lending

to domestic firms and households. This was an important

channel of transmission of the crisis from the United States

to the rest of the world.

A symmetrical phenomenon is at play in some

advanced countries. Because of their characteristics,

some countries are seen as particularly attractive by

investors when uncertainty is high. This is the case for

the United States. Even in normal times, there is a large

foreign demand for US T-bills. The reason is the size and

liquidity of the US T-bill market. One can sell or buy

large quantities of T-bills quickly and without moving



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Chapter 19  Output, the interest rate and the exchange rate   393







Equity flows



Billions of dollars (weekly flows)



15,000



10,000



5,000



0



–5,000



–10,000

2008



28/10/2015

2009



2010



2011



2012

Time



2013



2014



2015



Bond fund flows



3,000



Billions of dollars (weekly flows)



2,000

1,000

0

–1,000

–2,000

–3,000

–4,000

–5,000

–6,000

–7,000

2008



28/10/2015

2009



2010



2011



2012

Time



2013



2014



2015



Figure 19.2

The equity flows to emerging countries since June 2008

Source: International Monetary Fund.



the price very much. Going back to the long-standing US

trade deficit we saw earlier, one reason why the United

States has been able to run such a trade deficit, and thus

to borrow from the rest of the world for such a long time,

is the high foreign demand for T-bills (this is a partial

answer to the challenge stated at the end of the previous

chapter).

In crisis times, the preference for US T-bills becomes

even stronger. The United States is widely seen by investors as being a safe haven, a country in which it is safe to

move funds. The result is that times of higher uncertainty

are often associated with a stronger demand for US assets

and thus some upward pressure on the dollar. Interestingly, the beginning of the recent crisis was associated



M19 Macroeconomics 85678.indd 393



with a strong dollar appreciation. There is some irony here,

given that the crisis originated in the United States. Indeed,

some economists wonder how long the United States will

continue to be perceived as a safe haven. If this were to

change, the dollar would depreciate.

Further reading: Among the countries affected by large

capital outflows in 2008 and 2009 were also a number of

small advanced economies, notably Ireland and Iceland. A

number of these countries had built up the same financial

vulnerabilities as the United States (those we studied earlier (in Chapter 6)), and some of them suffered badly. A

good and easy read is Michael Lewis’s chapters on Ireland

and Iceland in Boomerang: Travels in a New Third World

(New York: W.W. Norton, 2011).



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