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21.4 Category Assessment

CTA assesses consumer technology categories as follows:

3D Printing

• An expanding diversity of 3D printing capabilities will drive the sector’s growth in

2016. CTA expects 3D printer sales to increase 64% from 2015, to reach 179,000

units sold, with total revenues of $152 million, a 38% increase.

Drones

• CTA expects U.S. sales of drones weighing more than 250 grams – the minimum for

FAA-mandated registration – to reach one million units in 2016, a 145% increase

from 2015’s total. When adding drones weighing 250 grams or less to those totals,

the total forecast for 2016 drone sales tops 2.8 million units (up 149% from 2015)

and $953 million in shipment revenues (a 115% increase from 2015).

Laptops

• Unit shipments of traditional laptops are estimated to reach 27.6 million units in

2016, a 2% increase over 2015. Increasing sales of 2-in-1 computers (including

both convertible laptops and detachable tablets) will drive this category’s growth,

with 11.7 million units sold in 2016 (48% growth over 2015) and $8 billion in

revenue.

Smart Home

• CTA expects the smart home technology category – including smart thermostats,

smart smoke and CO2 detectors, IP/W i-Fi cameras, smart locks, smart home

systems, and smart switches, dimmers and outlets – to reach 8.9 million units sold

in 2016 (a 21% increase), with $1.2 billion in revenue.

Smartphones

• As the dominant sales category in the industry, smartphone unit shipments are

projected to reach 183 million this year, up 5% from 2015. Smartphone revenues

will reach $55 billion in 2016, a 4% increase from 2015.

Tablets

• After significant growth and wide adoption over the past five years, tablet sales will

continue to decline in 2016. CTA projects unit sales to reach 60 million this year, a

9% decrease from 2015. Revenues are expected to hit $18 billion, down 12%.

Televisions

• After a banner year of sales growth in 2015 that saw LCD TV shipments climb 10%

to top 39 million units, the TV market should reach a steady state in 2016. CTA

projects revenues will reach $19 billion for all TV sets and displays in 2016, on par

with 2015, as volumes drop 1% to just under 40 million units.

• Ultra high-definition (UHD) TVs: Driven in part by the market introduction of



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next-generation technologies, shipments of 4K UHD displays are projected to reach

13 million units (an 83% increase). CTA expects revenue from 4K UHD displays in

2016 to top $10 billion, marking a 65% increase.

Video and Audio

• IoT connectivity is transforming core consumer tech categories. In video, sales of

smart TVs are projected to top 27 million units in 2016, a 13% increase over 2015,

and sales of streaming media players will hit 15.8 million units, a 5% increase.

• Connected speakers and wireless headphones are the standout categories in audio.

Unit sales of Bluetooth/Airplay-capable speakers are expected to reach 17.4 million

units in 2016 – a 40% increase – and $1.5 billion in rev enue, while sales of wireless

headphones will reach 3.9 million in unit sales (increasing 30%) and $623 million in

revenue.

Virtual Reality (VR)

• With several notable VR headsets coming to market in 2016, CTA expects unit

sales to increase by 500% over 2015, to reach 1.2 million units sold. Total revenues

are projected to reach $540 million, a 440% increase.

Wearables

• Led by the popularity of fitness activity trackers and smart watches, unit sales

among all wearables in 2016 are forecast to reach 38.4 million units. Fitness activity

tracker volumes will hit 17.4 million units in 2016 – a 12% increase from 2015 – with

revenues reaching $1.3 billion. Smart watches are expected to increase 28% to

13.6 million units, earning $3.7 billion in revenue, an increase of 22%.



21.5 Technology Impact

A November 2015 Harris Poll (www.theharrispoll.com) found adults are divided

on how technology impacts the way we live our lives. On the one hand, 71% say that

technology has improved the overall quality of their lives and 68% believe that it

encourages people to be more creative. But at the same time, a strong majority of

adults also believe technology is creating a lazy society (73%), has become too

distracting (73%), is corrupting interpersonal communications (69%), and is having a

negative impact on literacy (59%).

By generation, adults feel that technology has a positive affect on their lives in

the following areas:

Millennials

















Ability to learn new skills:

Relationships with friends:

Ability to live life the way they want:

Happiness:

Social life:

Relationships with family:



72%

59%

53%

52%

57%

46%



Gen Xers



59%

46%

43%

42%

42%

36%



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Boomers



60%

36%

39%

37%

30%

33%



Seniors



56%

34%

40%

38%

29%

27%



All



63%

46%

45%

43%

42%

37%



21.6 Market Resources

Consumer Technology Association, 1919 South Eads Street, Arlington, VA 22202.

(866) 858-1555. (www.cta.tech)



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22

USE OF TRANSPORTATION



22.1 Overview

According to the Transportation Statistics Annual Report 2015, published by the

Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS, www.bts.gov), the average person travels

about 17,000 miles per year using all modes of transportation, except bicycles and

walking. Nearly four- fifths of person-miles were in cars or other personal vehicles,

while domestic air travel accounted for 11%. U.S. residents and foreign visitors travel

about 4.7 trillion miles within the United States each year.

According to the American Time Use Survey (www.bls.gov/tus/), published by the

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), working adults spend 0.77 hours their day traveling

related to work. As of May 2016, the U.S. workforce count (ages 16 and older) was

151.03 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov).

Travel to work is distributed as follows:

• Drive self:

76%

• Carpool:

10%

• Public transportation:

5%

• Walk:

3%

• Bicycle:

1%

• Other:

1%

• None (work at home):

4%

In 2015, 85.8% of American workers commuted by automobile; 76.4% drove to

work alone; 9.4% carpooled. For comparison, these figures were 87.9%, 75.7%, and

12.2%, respectively, in 2000.

Personal travel not related to work accounts for about 74.8% of total daily

person-miles of travel. People on average devoted about 30.3% of their person-miles

of travel for social purposes and recreation. Another 29.6% of person-miles of travel

were divided about equally between shopping and running family or personal errands.

Travel related to school and church accounted f or 6.2% of person-miles of travel.

The U.S. transportation infrastructure includes over 4 million miles of roads,

nearly 139,000 miles of railroads, over 25,000 miles of navigable waterways, more than

5,000 public use airports, and 3,155 transit stations. T he U.S. transportation

infrastructure is valued at approximately $7.7 trillion, according to the BTS.



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22.2 Driving

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA, www.fhwa.dot.gov) estimates that

Americans drove 3.15 trillion miles in 2015, a 3.5% increase from the previous year.

Auto travel is an integral part of the travel industry, with approximately 1.7 billion

person-trips (84% of all U.S. domestic person-trips) being taken by car, truck,

camper/RV, or rental car, according to the U.S. Travel Association (USTA,

www.ustravel.org).

The Federal Highway Administration reported that the average American driver

logs 13,476 miles each year. By age and gender, average mileage by licensed drivers

was as follows:















16-to-19:

20-to-34:

35-to-54:

55-to-64:

65 and older:

Average:



Men



Women



Avg. Total



8,206

17,976

18,858

15,859

10,304

16,550



6,873

12,004

11,464

7,780

4,785

10,142



7,624

15,098

15,291

11,972

7,646

13,476



According to PIRG Educational Fund (www.uspirgedfund.org), 67% of Americans

ages 16-to-24 have a driver’s license, the lowest level in roughly a half-century. Among

adults older than age 24, 87% have a driver’s license.

Americans of all ages have reduced their driving. Since 2001, the total distance

Americans drove fell by about 1% – the U.S. population grew by about 10% during

those years. Among the lower percentage of youth and young adults who drive, a weak

economy, growing urban populations, and rising fuel prices contributed to the decline.

According to International Demographics (www.themediaaudit.com), 15.8% of

adults are high-mileage drivers, driving more than 350 miles in a typical week. Among

high-mileage drivers, 45% earn more than $75,000 in household income, a figure that is

46% higher when compared to the typical U.S. adult. Further, 29.2% of high mileage

drivers earn more than $100,000 in income, compared to 18.8% of all U.S. adults who

fall into the same income category.

The following metropolitan areas have the highest percentages of high-mileage

drivers:

• Charlotte, NC:

22.4%

• San Antonio, TX:

21.5%

• Columbia-Jefferson City, MO:

21.5%

• Little Rock, AR:

21.2%

• Columbia, SC:

21.0%



22.3 Vehicle Ownership

According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, there are 255.8 million

personal vehicles – automobiles, SUVs, vans, and pickup trucks – in operation in the



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United States. There are about 796 motor vehicles for every 1,000 people in the U.S.,

by far the highest per capita vehicle ownership in the world. There are 8.2 million

motorcycles.

According to Pew Research Center (www.pewresearch.org), 88% of all

households own or lease at least one vehicle, the same percentage as in 2001.

However, among households headed by a person age 18-to-24, vehicle ownership

dropped from 72% to 66%.

_________________________________________________________________



“Among most age groups, the level of ownership

is similar to 2001. However, among households

headed by those younger than 25, a decline is

evident. The decline in vehicle ownership may

be a reflection of declining preferences to drive

among the young adult population.”

Pew Research Center

_________________________________________________________________



According to the National Automobile Dealers Association (www.nada.org),

dealerships sold or leased 17.4 million new cars and light trucks in 2015, a 5.8%

increase from 2014. The average transaction price of a new car and light truck was

$33,269 in 2015.

New vehicle purchases per 100 drivers, by age, are as follows (source:

Edmunds.com):

• 18-to-24:

0.5

• 25-to-34:

2.9

• 35-to-44:

6.4

• 45-to-54:

6.8

• 55-to-64:

6.9

• 65-to-74:

6.7

• 75 and older:

3.8

Sport utility vehicles (SUVs) garner almost 27.8% of new vehicle sales,

according to Edmunds.com.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS, www.bls.gov) reports average age of the

nation’s cars, vans, and SUVs is 11.3 years. Fifteen percent (15%) of the automobiles

owned by American households are new-to-five-years-old, and 52% are at least 11years-old. Owners spend an average of $437 a year maintaining new-to-5-year-old

automobiles and $588 annually on 6-to-10-year-old vehicles.



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22.4 Air Transportation

Bureau of Transportation Statistics reports the number of domestic and

international passengers for scheduled flights (all carriers, all airports) into or from U.S.

airports as follows:

• 2003:

704.1 million

• 2004:

767.2 million

• 2005:

804.4 million

• 2006:

811.7 million

• 2007:

838.4 million

• 2008:

812.3 million

• 2009:

770.6 million

• 2010:

790.2 million

• 2011:

804.6 million

• 2012:

815.5 million

• 2013:

827.3 million

• 2014:

853.1 million

• 2015:

895.5 million

Travel statistics for U.S. flights in 2015 were as follows (change from previous

year in parenthesis):

• Number of flights:

9,526,000 (-0.3%)

• Revenue passenger miles:

1,289,000,000,000 (5.5%)

• Available seat-miles:

1,559,500,000,000 (5.5%)

• Load factor:

82.7 (no change)



22.5 Private Aviation

There are an estimated 2.7 million Americans with flying experience.

According to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA, www.faa.gov), there were

590,039 active certificated pilots in the U.S. at year-end 2015. This number has been

declining gradually over the past several decades, down from a high of over 827,000

pilots in 1980. One factor contributing to the decline in piloting is the expense of flight

training and costs associated with operating and maintaining a plane. It can cost

$8,000 to $10,000 for training and licensing, followed by $200 or more an hour for

aircraft rental, according to Michael Miller, an aviation consultant for The Velocity Group

(www.velocity-group.com).

The total number of pilots in 2015 included 170,718 private pilots, 122,729

student pilots, and 5,482 sport pilots. About 7% of pilots are female. The state of

Alaska has the highest number of pilots per capita; out of an estimated 410,478 adult

residents there were 7,933 pilots in 2015, a ratio of about 1:52.

According to the FAA, pilots log 28 million flying hours annually, approximately

one-third of which are for recreation and personal use.



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There are about 220,000 general aviation aircraft in the U.S., more that twice the

total of all other nations combined.



22.6 Rail Transportation

Amtrak, the National Railroad Passenger Corporation (www.amtrak.com)

provides intercity passenger rail services to more than 500 destinations in 46 states on

a 21,000-mile route system. Amtrak reported the number of passengers, including

commuters and long-distance travelers, as follows:

• FY2003:

22.3 million

• FY2004:

23.4 million

• FY2005:

24.0 million

• FY2006:

24.3 million

• FY2007:

25.8 million

• FY2008:

28.7 million

• FY2009:

27.2 million

• FY2010:

28.7 million

• FY2011:

30.2 million

• FY2012:

31.2 million

• FY2013:

31.6 million

• FY2014:

31.0 billion

• FY2015:

30.8 million

Amtrak revenue in FY2015 (October 1, 2014 - September 30, 2015) was

$3.2 billion.

The most heavily used services, accounting for 17.6 million trips in FY2015, are

those running on the Northeast Corridor, which serves Boston, New York City,

Philadelphia, and Washington, DC.



22.7 Intercity Bus Transportation

Greyhound Lines, Inc. (www.greyhound.com), the largest provider of intercity bus

transportation, operates a fleet of more than 1,735 active buses and serves about

3,800 destinations in North America. Greyhound logged 5.5 billion passenger miles in

2015.

Recent startups BoltBus (www.boltbus.com) and Megabus (www.megabus.com)

appeal to budget-minded, urban-dwelling young adults by providing a hip image,

technology (complimentary wi-fi and power outlets at every seat), and cheap fares.

These companies hold costs down by providing city-center curbside pickup in lieu of

service at bus terminals.



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22.8 Public Transit

Public transit services include transit bus; commuter, subway, elevated, and light

rail trains; and other kinds of public transit, such as ferry boats.

According to the National Transit Database of the Federal Transit Administration

(www.fta.dot.gov), there are 729 urban transit agencies and 1,580 rural and tribal

government transit agencies in the United States. Transit ridership includes over 10

billion unlinked transit trips on these systems each year.

Ridership by rail has grown rapidly in recent years due, in part, to considerable

public investment. Still, buses account for the vast majority of transit routes and

passengers.

_________________________________________________________________



“Americans are slowly warming to public

transport, and used it for a record 10.7 billion

trips last year. Even those living in the South

and Southwest – home to some of the country’s

most sprawling cities – are getting more of a

taste for it.”

Art Guzzetti, Vice President

American Public Transport Association

_________________________________________________________________



22.9 Market Resources

American Public Transport Association, 1666 K Street NW , Suite 1100, Washington,

DC 20006. (202) 496-4800. (www.apta.com)

Bureau of Transportation Statistics, U.S. Department of Transportation, 1200 New

Jersey Avenue SE, Washington, DC 20590. (800) 853-1351. (www.bts.gov)

Federal Aviation Administration, 800 Independence Avenue SW, Washington, DC

20591. (202) 493-4305. (www.faa.gov)

Federal Highway Administration, 1200 New Jersey Avenue SE, Washington, DC 20590.

(202) 366-4000. (www.fhwa.dot.gov)

National Automobile Dealers Association, 8400 W estpark Drive, McLean, VA 22102.

(703) 821-7000. (www.nada.org)



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Transportation Sustainability Research Center, 1301 S. 46 th Street, Building 190,

Richmond, CA 94804. (510) 655-3467. (http://tsrc.berkeley .edu)

U.S. Travel Association, 1100 New York Avenue NW, Suite 450, Washington, DC

20005. (202) 408-8422. (www.ustravel.org)

University of Michigan, Transportation Research Institute, 2901 Baxter Road,

Ann Arbor, MI 48109. (734) 764-6504. (www.umtri.umich.edu)



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PART IV: SHOPPING BEHAVIORS



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