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3 Reasons For Wanting To Move

3 Reasons For Wanting To Move

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8

POPULATION MIGRATION



8.1 Overview

According to the U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov), 36.7 million Americans

moved in 2015.

About 5 million people, or 1.5% of the population, move to another state each

year. These moves, which are typically job- or retirement-related, shift where billions of

dollars are spent annually. Keeping abreast of population shifts can help businesses

with expansion strategies.



8.2 Migration Trends

The rate of population migration, already in decline over several years, saw an

even greater decline during the recession. According to the Census Bureau, the

nation’s mobility rates during the Great Recession were among the lowest since World

War II.

The Census Bureau began tracking migration when the annual mover rate was

20.2%. Over time, the mover rate gradually declined. Rates hovered around 16% in

the late 1990s and fell to around 14% by the early 2000s.

According to Geographical Mobility, a report by the Census Bureau, the mobility

rate (i.e., percentage of people who moved) has been as follows:

• 2006-2007:

13.2%

• 2007-2008:

11.9%

• 2008-2009:

12.5%

• 2009-2010:

12.5%

• 2010-2011:

11.6%

• 2011-2012:

12.0%

• 2012-2013:

11.7%

• 2013-2014:

11.5%

• 2014-2015:

11.6%

According to the Census Bureau, 21 states and the District of Columbia had

positive net domestic migration rates between 2014 and 2015. The following states

had the highest rates of net domestic migration:

1. North Dakota

2. District of Columbia

3. Colorado



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4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.



South Carolina

South Dakota

Montana

Florida

Nevada

Wyoming

Texas



New Mexico, New Jersey, Illinois, New York, and Alaska had the largest negative

net domestic migration rates.

Mobility rates by age are as follows:

• Under 18:

13.1%

• 19-to-36:

20.4%

• 37-to-48:

10.6%

• 49-to-67:

5.9%

• 68 and older:

3.5%

_________________________________________________________________



“Mobility for young adults has fallen to the lowest

level in more than 50 years as cash-strapped 20somethings shun home-buying and refrain from

major moves in a weak job market. Burdened with

college debt or toiling in low-wage jobs, they are

delaying careers, marriage and having children.

They are staying put and doubling up with

roommates or living with Mom and Dad, unable to

make long-term plans or commit to buying a home,

let alone pay a mortgage. Many understood after

the 2007-2009 recession that times would be

tough”

Houston Chronicle

_________________________________________________________________



By metropolitan area, Portland, Oregon; Austin, Texas; and Houston, Texas,

experienced the highest gains in young adults, reflecting stronger local economies.

Among college graduates 25 and older, Denver and Washington, DC, topped the list of

destinations.



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8.3 Reasons For Moving

Not only are Americans moving less than they once did, the reasons for moving

are changing.

According to Reason For Moving, a report by the Census Bureau, people who

move do so for the following reasons:

• Housing:

48%

• Family:

30%

• Employment:

19%

• Other:

2%

A study conducted at the Luskin School of Public Affairs at the University of

California Los Angeles (http://luskin.ucla.edu/public-policy) compared the reason that

people moved within their communities prior to and after the Great Recession. Primary

reasons for moving before and during the Great Recession (2007-2009) were as

follows:















Demographic/life cycle:

Own home/better neighborhood:

Find cheaper housing:

Look for work:

Take a new job:

Other:



Pre-Recession



During Recession



28.2%

41.3%

20.8%

4.9%

1.9%

2.8%



31.1%

30.4%

23.1%

7.8%

2.3%

5.4%



_________________________________________________________________



“Typically, over the last couple of decades, when

Americans moved, they moved to improve their

lives. For the first time, Americans are moving

for downward economic mobility. Either they

lost their house or can’t afford where they’re

renting currently or needed to save money.”

Prof. Michael A. Stoll, Ph.D.

Chair, Public Policy

Luskin School of Public Affairs

UCLA

_________________________________________________________________



8.4 Moving In Retirement

The rate of migration typically increases as adults approach retirement.



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According to The Demand Institute (www.demandinstitute.org), 40% of Americans ages

50-to-64 typically plan to move within five years of their retirement.

Consistent with the trend among the overall population, retirees are relocating

less than in the past. According to the Census Bureau, among the nation’s 74 million

Baby Boomers, about 4 million move each year. Among those who move, 61% remain

in the same county; only 15% move to another state. Only about 3.5% of Seniors (ages

70 and older) relocate each year.

_________________________________________________________________



“Many empty-nesters nowadays, unlike in the

past, have opted not to pull up stakes and move

to sunnier climes like Florida or Arizona. They

want to continue to live near family and longtime

friends. Others stay put because of the shaky

economy or the difficulty of selling a home or

getting a mortgage. Staying put dovetails with

another big trend: the growing number of retirees

continuing to do some paid part-time work.”

The New York Times

_________________________________________________________________



8.5 Metropolitan Relocation

Surveys by International Demographics (www.themediaaudit.com) found that

the migration of adults from metropolitan areas was half the rate prior to the Great

Recession. The percentage of adults in metropolitan areas who moved outside that

region dropped from 3.5% and 4.4% in 2007 and 2005, respectively, to 2.2% postrecession.

The Census Bureau reported the following metros attracted residents from other

areas (population change from domestic migration):

• Austin, TX:

5.4%

• Raleigh, NC:

3.7%

• San Antonio, TX:

3.2%

• Denver, CO:

2.9%

• Charlotte, NC:

2.6%

• Nashville, TN:

2.6%

• Oklahoma City, OK:

2.6%

• Orlando, FL:

2.3%



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Houston, TX:

Dallas-Fort Worth, TX:



2.1%

2.1%

























The following metros lost residents to other areas:

New York, NY:

-1.9%

Chicago, IL:

-1.8%

Detroit, MI:

-1.6%

Hartford, CT:

-1.6%

Cleveland, OH:

-1.5%

Los Angeles, CA:

-1.1%

Rochester, NY:

-1.1%

Providence, RI:

-1.1%

Virginia Beach, VA:

-1.1%

Memphis, TN:

-1.1%



According to International Demographics, 61% of adults have lived within the

same metro area for 20 years or more. The following are the metropolitan areas with

the highest percentage of residents who have lived in the area for 20 or more years:

• Buffalo, NY:

84%

• Pittsburgh, PA:

81%

• Cleveland, OH:

79%

• Syracuse, NY:

77%

• Rochester, NY:

76%

_________________________________________________________________



“At the peak of the housing bubble in 2006,

almost half a million people fled the country’s 50

largest metro areas in search of less expensive

places to live, many settling in distant suburbs.

Then the recession put the brakes on all kinds of

migration. Census data reveal that as Americans

start moving around again, cities are seeing a

different kind of urban flight. This time,

hundreds of thousands of Americans who enjoy

city living are abandoning major population

centers not for suburbs but for more affordable,

second-tier metropolitan areas.”

Bloomberg Businessweek

_________________________________________________________________



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8.6 Relocation Reports

Allied Van Lines (www.alliedvanlines.com), Atlas Van Lines (www.atlasvanlines.com),

and United Van Lines (www.unitedvanlines.com), the three largest U.S. moving companies,

report annually on migration activity in the United States.

48th Annual Magnet States Report, published in January 2016 by Allied Van

Lines, reported the top inbound states as f ollows:

• Texas

• Florida

• Arizona

• Oregon

• South Carolina

Virginia, Illinois, Pennsylvania, New York, and New Jersey were the top

outbound states.

The 2015 Migration Patterns (24th edition), published in January 2016 by Atlas

Van Lines, reported the states with the highest percentage of inbound moves as

follows:

• Oregon

• Idaho

• North Carolina

• Alaska

• North Dakota















The following states had the highest percentage of outbound moves:

Hawaii

New York

Illinois

South Dakota

Wyoming



The 39th Annual Migration Study, published in January 2016 by United Van

Lines, reported the top inbound states in 2015 w ere as follows:

• Oregon

• South Carolina

• Vermont

• Idaho

• North Carolina















The following were the top outbound states in 2015:

New Jersey

New York

Illinois

Connecticut

Ohio



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8.7 Market Resources

International Demographics, 10333 Richmond Avenue, Suite 200, Houston, TX 77042.

(713) 626-0333. (www.themediaaudit.com)

Migration/Geographic Mobility, U.S. Census Bureau. (www.census.gov/hhes/migration/)

The Demand Institute, 845 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10022. (212) 339-0220.

(www.demandinstitute.org)



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9

PERSONAL LIFE



9.1 Satisfaction With Personal Life

Gallup Polls (www.gallup.com) periodically ask adults how satisfied they are with

the way things are going in their personal life. Responses have been as follows:

Very Satisfied

















2002:

2005:

2008:

2011:

2013:

2016:



Somewhat Satisfied Somewhat Dissatisfied



56%

57%

47%

46%

50%

53%



29%

28%

33%

32%

29%

32%



9%

8%

10%

12%

13%

8%



Very Dissatisfied



5%

5%

8%

8%

7%

6%



9.2 Personal Financial Situation

When asked by Gallup how they would rate their financial situation, responses

were as follows:

































2002:

2003:

2004:

2005:

2006:

2007:

2008:

2009:

2010:

2011:

2012:

2013:

2014:

2015:

2016:



Excellent



Good



Fair



Poor



9%

5%

9%

8%

10%

10%

7%

6%

8%

5%

7%

7%

9%

7%

9%



43%

45%

42%

44%

41%

45%

38%

36%

33%

37%

34%

38%

39%

39%

41%



35%

38%

36%

36%

37%

31%

37%

39%

40%

40%

41%

40%

36%

35%

32%



13%

12%

13%

12%

12%

14%

17%

19%

19%

18%

18%

14%

16%

17%

17%



When asked to compare their current financial situation with that of one year

prior, responses were as follows:



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2002:

2003:

2004:

2005:

2006:

2007:

2008:

2009:

2010:

2011:

2012:

2013:

2014:

2015:

2016:



Getting Better



Getting Worse



Same



52%

43%

53%

49%

47%

51%

32%

34%

39%

41%

42%

47%

43%

52%

47%



29%

35%

29%

35%

37%

32%

49%

43%

40%

41%

41%

36%

40%

33%

38%



19%

20%

18%

15%

15%

16%

17%

22%

19%

16%

16%

15%

16%

15%

14%



9.3 Economic Well-Being

Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2015, published in

May 2016 by the Federal Reserve (www.federalreserve.gov), reported financial wellbeing of U.S. households as follows:

• Sixty-nine percent (69%) of adults report that they are either “living comfortably” or

“doing okay,” compared to 65% in 2014 and 62% in 2013. However, 31%, or

approximately 76 million adults, are either “struggling to get by” or are “just getting

by.”

• Individuals are 9 percentage points more likely to say that their financial well-being

improved during the prior year than to say that their financial well-being declined.

• Twenty-two percent (22%) of employed adults indicate that they are either working

multiple jobs, doing informal work for pay in addition to their main job, or both.

• Twenty-three percent (23%) of respondents expect their income to be higher in the

year after the survey, down from 29% who expected income growth in the year after

the 2014 survey.

• Sixty-eight percent (68%) of non-retired respondents saved at least a portion of their

income in the prior year.

• Thirty-two percent (32%) of adults report that their income varies to some degree

from month to month, and 43% report that their monthly expenses vary to some

degree. Forty-two percent (42%) of those with volatile incomes or expenses say

that they have struggled to pay their bills at times because of this volatility.

• Forty-six percent (46%) of adults say they either could not cover an emergency

expense costing $400, or would cover it by selling something or borrowing money.

• Twenty-two percent (22%) of respondents experienced a major unexpected medical

expense that they had to pay out of pocket in the prior year, and 46% of those who

say they had a major medical expense report that they currently owe debt from that

expense.



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