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Phụ lục 2. Kiểm định T-test sự đồng nhất hai nhóm hộ trong nghiên cứu.

Phụ lục 2. Kiểm định T-test sự đồng nhất hai nhóm hộ trong nghiên cứu.

Tải bản đầy đủ

Independent Samples Test
Levene's Test for
Equality of
Variances
F

Sig.

t-test for Equality of Means

t

df

Sig. (2tailed)

Mean
Difference

Std. Error
Difference

95% Confidence Interval of the
Difference
Lower

INC
LG_INC
EXP
LG_EXP
FINC
LG_FINC
ENTHNIC
SEX
HHEDU
MEMEDU
AV_EDU

Equal variances assumed

,197

,657

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

,121

,728

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

1,998

,158

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

10,505

,001

5,682

,018

10,287

,001

,306

,581

9,637

,002

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed
Equal variances not assumed

147,8032907

,841 339,000

,401

44,2450215 52,6402979

-59,2977318

147,7877748

1,247

339

,213

,0460812

,0369480

-,0265950

,1187574

1,247 338,705

,213

,0460812

,0369519

-,0266029

,1187653

-,561

339

,575

-12,7845038 22,7980052

-57,6278714

32,0588639

-,557

218,444

,578

-12,7845038 22,9453167

-58,0070441

32,4380366

339

,352

,1115916

,933 338,261

,351

-1,180

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

-59,3132477

,116

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

52,648186

2,477

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

44,2450215

,933

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

,401

,699

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

339

,150

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

,840

7,128

,008

Upper

,0358917

,0384852

-,0398082

,0358917

,0384634

-,0397658

,1115493

339

,239

-43,1470208 36,5552100 -115,0506239

28,7565823

-1,181 338,791

,239

-43,1470208 36,5415088 -115,0238330

28,7297914

,215

339

,830

,0146952

,0682529

-,1195573

,1489476

,215 302,888

,830

,0146952

,0684510

-,1200046

,1493950

339

,236

,050

,042

-,033

,133

1,186 334,128

,237

,050

,042

-,033

,134

339

,113

-,067

,042

-,150

,016

-1,589 334,091

,113

-,067

,042

-,150

,016

-2,512

339

,012

-1,0711

,4263

-1,9097

-,2325

-2,512 338,836

,012

-1,0711

,4263

-1,9097

-,2325

-1,513

339

,131

-,6490

,4288

-1,4926

,1945

-1,516 325,969

,130

-,6490

,4280

-1,4911

,1930

-1,278

339

,202

-,4116402

,3221942

-1,0453919

,2221114

-1,279 332,102

,202

-,4116402

,3217353

-1,0445363

,2212558

1,187
-1,587

HHAGE
HHSIZE
R_DEPEN1
R_DEPEN2
SHOCK1
SHOCK2
SHOCK3
RURAL
R_FARM
R_NFARM
REMIT
ROAD
LAND
SAVING

Equal variances assumed

19,487

,000

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

,447

,504

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

2,985

,085

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

89,810

,000

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

1,370

,243

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

,001

,980

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

2,392

,123

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

1,430

,233

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

7,779

,006

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

9,633

,002

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

,059

,808

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

14,733

,000

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

22,596

,000

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed
Equal variances not assumed

3,204

,074

4,987

339

,000

7,208

1,446

4,365

10,052

4,994 330,968

,000

7,208

1,443

4,369

10,048

-2,720

339

,007

-,501

,184

-,864

-,139

-2,720 338,993

,007

-,501

,184

-,864

-,139

-1,377

339

,169

-,0328056

,0238159

-,0796511

,0140399

-1,378 338,307

,169

-,0328056

,0238027

-,0796255

,0140143

339

,000

,1634180

,0284475

,1074622

,2193739

5,781 228,669

,000

,1634180

,0282704

,1077143

,2191217

-,585

339

,559

-,028

,048

-,123

,067

-,585

338,132

,559

-,028

,048

-,123

,067

-,012

339

,990

,000

,008

-,016

,016

-,012

338,763

,990

,000

,008

-,016

,016

,771

339

,441

,027

,035

-,042

,097

,772 336,825

,441

,027

,035

-,042

,097

5,745

-,597

339

,551

-,021

,036

-,091

,049

-,597

337,910

,551

-,021

,036

-,091

,049

1,858

339

,064

,0486269

,0261650

-,0028392

,1000931

1,861 334,887

,064

,0486269

,0261354

-,0027833

,1000371

339

,730

,0102006

,0295309

-,0478863

,0682875

,346 321,919

,729

,0102006

,0294665

-,0477707

,0681718

,345
-,122

339

,903

-,006

,051

-,106

,093

-,122

338,947

,903

-,006

,051

-,106

,093

-1,896

339

,059

-,080

,042

-,162

,003

-1,893 327,761

,059

-,080

,042

-,162

,003

-3,562

339

,000

-8237,447

2312,728

-12786,553

-3688,342

-3,540 227,446

,000

-8237,447

2326,787

-12822,263

-3652,632

339

,365

,048

,052

-,056

,151

,908 338,354

,365

,048

,052

-,056

,151

,908

* Kết quả chạy T-test – kiểm định sự tƣơng đồng giữa hai nhóm biến trong
năm 2012 bằng Indenpendent-Samples T test trong SPSS nhƣ sau:

INC
LG_INC
EXP
LG_EXP
FINC
LG_FINC
ENTHNIC
SEX
HHEDU
MEMEDU
AV_EDU
HHAGE
HHSIZE
R_DEPEN1
R_DEPEN2
SHOCK1
SHOCK2
SHOCK3
RURAL
R_FARM
R_NFARM
REMIT
ROAD
LAND
SAVING

T
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1

Group Statistics
N
Mean
Std. Deviation Std. Error Mean
172
1670,820534
1624,0583931
123,8332915
169
1862,279295
1599,6146378
123,0472798
172
3,091783
,3394995
,0258866
169
3,134940
,3515322
,0270409
172
409,493088
258,5640213
19,7153218
169
447,132720
286,6432597
22,0494815
172
2,527310
,2810603
,0214306
169
2,570220
,2651680
,0203975
172
452,191150
1350,2221271
102,9534720
169
796,364926
1280,2868112
98,4836009
172
1,932816
1,0205465
,0778159
169
2,443455
,8008363
,0616028
172
,84
,365
,028
167
,78
,412
,032
172
,76
,431
,033
169
,83
,373
,029
172
6,654
4,0962
,3123
169
7,491
3,6553
,2812
172
8,791
4,7440
,3617
169
10,494
3,4714
,2670
172
6,727784
3,3963155
,2589666
169
7,361344
2,7445033
,2111156
172
59,59
14,070
1,073
169
52,43
11,120
,855
172
3,93
1,975
,151
169
4,45
1,622
,125
172
,165949
,1860384
,0141853
169
,190157
,1937168
,0149013
172
,303788
,3812914
,0290732
169
,118794
,2271498
,0174731
172
,24
,427
,033
169
,38
,488
,038
172
,06
,245
,019
169
,09
,285
,022
172
,12
,321
,025
169
,10
,302
,023
172
,85
,353
,027
169
,82
,388
,030
172
,563388
,3514517
,0267979
169
,592557
,2615599
,0201200
172
,320130
,3108283
,0237004
169
,319759
,2589767
,0199213
172
,60
,490
,037
169
,47
,501
,039
172
,15
,353
,027
169
,22
,419
,032
172
5333,20
9977,047
760,743
169
12474,89
21650,640
1665,434
172
,82
,386
,029
169
,82
,383
,029

Independent Samples Test
Levene's Test
for Equality of
Variances
F

Sig.

t-test for Equality of Means

t

df

Sig. (2tailed)

Mean
Difference

Std. Error
Difference

95% Confidence Interval of the
Difference
Lower

INC
LG_INC
EXP
LG_EXP
FINC
LG_FINC
ENTHNIC
SEX
HHEDU
MEMEDU
AV_EDU

Equal variances assumed

1,230

,268

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

,622

,431

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

1,219

,270

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

,417

,519

6,056

,014

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed
Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

14,855

,000

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

7,777

,006

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

13,229

,000

3,511

,062

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed
Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

15,736

,000

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed
Equal variances not assumed

9,514

,002

Upper

-1,097

339

,274 -191,4587612

174,5951708

-534,8850984

151,9675759

-1,097

338,998

,274 -191,4587612

174,5718109

-534,8391573

151,9216349

-1,153

339

,250

-,0431577

,0374228

-,1167679

,0304525

-1,153

338,070

,250

-,0431577

,0374343

-,1167913

,0304758

-1,274

339

,204

-37,6396326

29,5514619

-95,7669581

20,4876929

-1,273

334,165

,204

-37,6396326

29,5782614

-95,8226883

20,5434230

-1,450

339

,148

-,0429094

,0296012

-,1011345

,0153158

-1,450

338,444

,148

-,0429094

,0295860

-,1011050

,0152863

-2,415

339

,016 -344,1737757

142,5393961

-624,5468379

-63,8007135

-2,416

338,573

,016 -344,1737757

142,4725835

-624,4166844

-63,9308670

-5,134

339

,000

-,5106394

,0994568

-,7062695

-,3150093

-5,145

323,263

,000

-,5106394

,0992483

-,7058935

-,3153852

1,386

337

,167

,059

,042

-,025

,142

1,384

329,448

,167

,059

,042

-,025

,142

-1,798

339

,073

-,079

,044

-,164

,007

-1,800

333,702

,073

-,079

,044

-,164

,007

-1,990

339

,047

-,8371

,4207

-1,6645

-,0096

-1,992

335,915

,047

-,8371

,4203

-1,6637

-,0104

-3,778

339

,000

-1,7034

,4508

-2,5901

-,8166

-3,789

313,417

,000

-1,7034

,4496

-2,5880

-,8187

-1,893

339

,059

-,6335600

,3347355

-1,2919802

,0248601

-1,896

326,868

,059

-,6335600

,3341160

-1,2908491

,0237291

HHAGE
HHSIZE
R_DEPEN1
R_DEPEN2
SHOCK1
SHOCK2
SHOCK3
RURAL
R_FARM
R_NFARM
REMIT
ROAD
LAND
SAVING

Equal variances assumed

27,337

,000

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

8,376

,004

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

,201

,654

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

60,281

,000

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

32,901

,000

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

2,989

,085

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

,865

,353

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

3,614

,058

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

21,657

,000

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

6,654

,010

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

6,314

,012

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

14,733

,000

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed

26,522

,000

Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed
Equal variances not assumed

,017

,896

5,208

339

,000

7,161

1,375

4,457

9,865

5,219

324,169

,000

7,161

1,372

4,462

9,860

-2,652

339

,008

-,519

,196

-,905

-,134

-2,656

328,660

,008

-,519

,196

-,904

-,135

-1,177

339

,240

-,0242077

,0205662

-,0646612

,0162458

-1,177

337,861

,240

-,0242077

,0205736

-,0646761

,0162607

5,431

339

,000

,1849943

,0340627

,1179934

,2519951

5,454

279,698

,000

,1849943

,0339199

,1182236

,2517649

-2,946

339

,003

-,146

,050

-,244

-,049

-2,942

331,602

,003

-,146

,050

-,244

-,048

-,861

339

,390

-,025

,029

-,081

,032

-,860

329,821

,390

-,025

,029

-,082

,032

,464

339

,643

,016

,034

-,051

,082

,465

338,287

,642

,016

,034

-,051

,082

,948

339

,344

,038

,040

-,041

,117

,947

334,881

,344

,038

,040

-,041

,117

-,868

339

,386

-,0291683

,0335953

-,0952499

,0369133

-,870

315,938

,385

-,0291683

,0335104

-,0951000

,0367633

,012

339

,990

,0003706

,0310101

-,0606259

,0613670

,012

330,212

,990

,0003706

,0309608

-,0605346

,0612758

2,446

339

,015

,131

,054

,026

,237

2,445

338,494

,015

,131

,054

,026

,237

-1,896

339

,059

-,080

,042

-,162

,003

-1,893

327,761

,059

-,080

,042

-,162

,003

-3,923

339

,000

-7141,696

1820,490

-10722,574

-3560,818

-3,901

235,354

,000

-7141,696

1830,956

-10748,852

-3534,539

-,065

339

,948

-,003

,042

-,085

,079

-,065

338,953

,948

-,003

,042

-,085

,079

.4

.6

Density

4.0e-04

0

0

.2

2.0e-04

Density

6.0e-04

.8

1

8.0e-04

Phụ lục 3. Đồ thị phân phối các biến phụ thuộc: thu nhập và chi tiêu

0

5000

10000

2

15000

2.5

3
LG_INC

3.5

1

2
LG_FINC

3

2

3
LG_EXP

4

0

0

.2

.4

Density

4.0e-04
2.0e-04

Density

.6

.8

6.0e-04

INC

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

4

.6
0

0

.2

.001

.4

Density

Density

.002

.8

1

.003

F_INC

0

1000

2000
EXP

3000

4000

1

4

5

Phụ lục 4. Kết quả mô hình hồi quy đánh giá tác động tín dụng chính thức lên
thu nhập bình quân đầu ngƣời hộ gia đình.
*Hồi qui 1.1: Xem xét mối quan hệ giản đơn giữa tín dụng với các biến: thời gian,
tín dụng và tương tác tín dụng theo thời gian (DD).
Source

SS

df

MS

Model
Residual

52.9924594
79.9196285

3
678

17.6641531
.117875558

Total

132.912088

681

.195171935

LG_INC

Coef.

t
T
DD
_cons

.5114828
-.0460812
.0892389
2.5803

Std. Err.
.0370222
.0371862
.0525892
.0261787

t
13.82
-1.24
1.70
98.56

Number of obs
F( 3,
678)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE

P>|t|
0.000
0.216
0.090
0.000

=
=
=
=
=
=

682
149.85
0.0000
0.3987
0.3960
.34333

[95% Conf. Interval]
.4387908
-.1190951
-.0140183
2.528899

.5841749
.0269327
.1924962
2.631701

. hettest
Breusch-Pagan / Cook-Weisberg test for heteroskedasticity
Ho: Constant variance
Variables: fitted values of LG_INC
chi2(1)
Prob > chi2

=
=

0.06
0.8016

H0 : Phương sai của sai số không thay đổi
Giả thuyết:
H1 : Phương sai sai số thay đổi
Prob > chi2 = 0,8016 > 0,05 không thể bác bỏ H0 ở mức ý nghĩa 5% hay phương sai
không thay đổi.
. vif

-

Variable

VIF

1/VIF

DD
T
t

2.98
2.00
1.98

0.335283
0.500000
0.504399

Mean VIF

2.32

Các hệ số Vif < 10, không có hiện tượng đa cộng tuyến.
Các biến độc lập trong mô hình giải thích được 39,6% biến quan sát. Mô
hình phù hợp ở mức ý nghĩa thông kê dưới 1% (Prob > F = 0,0000).