Tải bản đầy đủ
1…Launching Fruit Flavoured Soft Drinks at Fresh Cola (A)

1…Launching Fruit Flavoured Soft Drinks at Fresh Cola (A)

Tải bản đầy đủ

184

7 Experimental Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)

Coke and Pepsi together have a combined market share of around 95 %. In
physical terms, the demand for aerated soft drinks has grown from 105 million
cases in 1990–1991 to 403 million cases in 2009–2010 and is expected to touch
479 million cases in 2014–2015. The annual per capita consumption of soft drinks
at around 5–6 l in India is considered far below the global standards. Even
neighbouring countries like Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Thailand averaged at 21, 17
and 73 l, respectively.3
The low consumption rate and the large population in India leave room for local
players as well in the soft drinks market, despite Coke and Pepsi together sharing
95 % of the market. Fresh Cola, a regional player from south India, exists in this
space, headquartered at Kochi. The company has been in existence for over two
decades, with its presence mainly in southern India. As a third-tier non-alcoholic
carbonated Beverage Company, Fresh Cola produces and sells carbonated soft
drink and bottled water. Its products come from its five bottling plants, located in
the four southern states in the country.
In the meeting of the Board of Governors of the company held on 15 April
2012, Mr. Narayanan Kutty, the Chairman of the company, suggested that with a
growing market in the country for non-alcoholic fruit flavoured drinks, Fresh Cola
must consider entering this market segment. He asked Mr. Phillip Varghese,
Director (Marketing), to look into the feasibility of introducing these drinks and
present a report in the next board meeting scheduled to be held in October 2012.
The Board also suggested that the company should go for independent and stand
alone brand names appealing to consumers.
After the meeting, Varghese returned to his chamber and pondered over the
board room discussion. He too felt that Fresh Cola must enter the fruit flavoured
drinks segment. The main concern was to understand consumer preferences
towards different fruit flavoured drinks. However, he realized that considerable
groundwork is needed even to zero down on the idea of launching the fruit drinks
and if decided in favour, the question would be ‘which all fruit flavour drinks
should be launched’. Some focused thinking led to the following questions:
a. How to measure consumer preference when the products are not yet in the
market?
b. Can Varghese expect all flavours to be equally popular?
c. Can extraneous variables like gender or age have a bearing on consumer
preferences of different brands?
d. If so, how to nullify their effects in understanding consumer preferences for
different brands?
e. Can the nature of store outlets have a bearing on the likelihood of purchase of
different brands?

3

Source: Ministry of Food Processing Industries, Government of India (http://mofpi.nic.in/
ContentPage.aspx?CategoryId=548).

7.1 Launching Fruit Flavoured Soft Drinks at Fresh Cola (A)

185

f. Could there be some additional effect due to a combination of some of these
variables on brand purchase likelihood, besides the effects of the individual
variables?
After considerable introspection and interaction with industry peers, Varghese
realized that he would require the assistance of a professional market research firm
to deal with the variety of queries listed above and the likes. Accordingly, after
consulting his CEO, Mr. John Mathai, he invited Mr. Sreejesh Menon, Vice
President (Research), India International Research Inc. (IIRI), a leading market
research firm and posed his concerns to him. Menon discussed the concerns with
his research team and came out with a plan of study, which was approved by
Varghese. In the first leg, a series of focus group discussions were proposed to
identify the different flavours consumers like in fruit flavoured soft drinks and the
preferred brand name for each flavour. Subsequent to resolving this issue, a series
of experimental studies were proposed to address the other issues using a taste test
of the proposed drinks. The consumer preference was to be measured through
respondent’s rating of likelihood of purchase based on tasting the drink on 0–100
scale, with 0 representing ‘no possibility of purchase’ and 100 representing ‘certainty of purchase’.
IIRI got on to the job quickly. To identify the preferred flavour alternatives
and brand names, IIRI conducted ten focus group interviews, with 8 respondents
in each group. The groups were spread over the age group of 10–50 years, the
major market segments. The analysis of the exploratory investigation showed the
feasibility of introducing three different varieties of fruit flavoured drinks to their
product line. These flavours were—apple, strawberry and grapes—with suggested brand names as Bravo, Delight and Cool, respectively. With these findings available within 10 days of study initiation, they were reported to Varghese.
He appreciated the quick work and asked the R and D Department of the
company to develop the three fruit flavoured soft drinks—Bravo (apple flavour),
Delight (strawberry flavour) and Cool (grapes flavour). The R and D team
assured him that they will have the test products ready within one month. As
promised, the R and D Department delivered the three drinks within a month.
This brought IIRI to its second leg of research—the taste tests under different
experimental conditions.

7.1.1 Experiment-1
To answer the query ‘whether all the flavours would be equally popular’, Menon
planned this experiment. A taste test was conducted with 100 randomly selected
respondents, with each respondent exposed to only one brand assigned randomly
and data on his/her purchase likelihood of that brand was recorded.

186

7 Experimental Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)

7.1.2 Experiment-2 (a)
The second experimental study mainly conducted to investigate whether the
consumers’ preferences significantly differ across brands (with three different
flavours), coupled with a goal to analyse whether the response differs between
males and females. This is mainly carried out with the gut feeling that the
respondents’ preferences for these three brands will be influenced by the gender of
the respondents. In other words, gender is used as a blocking variable (classified
into male and female), each block being a homogeneous group in itself.
Respondents from each block are randomly assigned to the treatment groups
(Bravo, Delight and Cool). Each respondent first tasted the respective brand and
then rated the likelihood of purchase for that brand.

7.1.3 Experiment-2 (b)
This experimental study focused on whether the consumers’ preferences significantly differ across brands (with three different flavours), coupled with a goal to
analyse whether the response differs among different age-groups. Once again this
was done with the gut feeling that respondents’ preferences for these three brands
will be influenced by the age-group of the respondents. In other words, age-group
is used as a blocking variable (classified as school going, college going and adults),
each block being a homogeneous group in itself. Respondents from each block are
randomly assigned to the treatment groups (Bravo, Delight and Cool). Each
respondent first tasted the respective brand and then rated the likelihood of purchase for that brand.

7.1.4 Experiment-3
Menon knew from his long experience that each customer mostly buys soft drinks
usually from a preferred outlet/store. In this experimental study, in addition to
controlling age-group of consumers, he wanted to control the type of stores
(defined as drug stores, supermarkets and kirana stores) from where these three
brands are likely to be purchased. To implement the design, age of the respondents
and type of stores were blocked into three levels (same as the number of levels for
the treatment variable, i.e. the brand), as shown in Table 7.1. In the Table, rows
represent the age-group and columns represent the type of stores, both extraneous
variables each of which are blocked into three levels. Each level of brand (the
independent variable) is then assigned randomly to each cell in the table in such a
way that each level of the independent variable would appear only once in each
row and in each column.

7.1 Launching Fruit Flavoured Soft Drinks at Fresh Cola (A)

187

Table 7.1 Experiment-3 (Age-group and type of stores as blocking variables)
Age of the consumer
Type of Stores
School going
College going
Adults

Drug store

Super market

Kirana Store

B
C
A

A
B
C

C
A
B

Note A, B and C denotes the three different brands, which have, respectively, apple, strawberry
and grapes flavours

7.1.5 Experiment-4
In addition to examining the effect of different flavour, the research firm was also
interested in simultaneously examining the effect of store type on the brand purchase likelihood. Under Experiment-4, the firm intended to analyse the simultaneous impact of flavour and store type on the likelihood of brand purchase. As part
of this experiment, the research firm manipulated the store type into four levels
(defined as drug stores, supermarkets, hypermarket and kirana stores) and flavour
into three levels, as shown in Table 7.2. This combination has created 4 9 3 = 12
cells. Thus, twelve different product combinations were created, each having a
specific level of store and flavour. Data on brand purchase likelihood were collected at store end from randomly selected purchasers visiting the stores by
offering only one brand to a customer for taste test.

7.1.6 Questions for Discussion
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

What are experimentation, experimental research and experimental design?
Why do we need to conduct experimental studies?
What are the methods of control in an experimental study?
List out the characteristics of experimental research.
What are the steps involved in conducting an experimental study?
Suggest and discuss appropriate experimental designs for each of the experiments proposed under this case.

Table 7.2 Experiment-4

Store type

Flavour

Drug store
Bravo (apple) delight (strawberry) cool (grapes)
Super-market
Hypermarket
Kirana store

188

7 Experimental Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)

7.2 Launching Fruit Flavoured Soft Drinks
at Fresh Cola (B)
After deciding on the experimental designs for each experiment, the research team
at IIRI collected data under each of the experiment reported as below:

7.2.1 Experiment-1
The file freshcola1.xls reports data for each individual on purchase likelihood for
the brand he/she was exposed to under the experiment. The data need to be
analysed to answer the above query.

7.2.2 Experiment-2 (a)
The file freshcola2.xls reports data for each individual on purchase likelihood for
the brand he/she was exposed to (reported as 1 for Bravo, 2 for Delight and 3
for Cool) under the experiment, along with gender information (reported as 1 for
males and 2 for females). The data need to be analysed to answer the above query.

7.2.3 Experiment-2 (b)
The data in the file freshcola2.xls was explained earlier. The file also contains data
on age-group of each respondent (reported as 1 for school children, 2 for college
students and 3 for adults). The data need to be analysed to answer the above query.

7.2.4 Experiment-3
The file freshcola3.xls reports data for each individual on purchase likelihood for
the brand he/she was exposed to (reported as 1 for Bravo, 2 for Delight and 3 for
Cool) under the experiment, along with information on the age-group of each
respondent (reported as 1 for school children, 2 for college students and 3 for
adults) and the store type where interviewed (reported as 1 for drug store, 2 for
supermarket and 3 for kirana store). The data need to be analysed to answer the
above query.

7.2 Launching Fruit Flavoured Soft Drinks at Fresh Cola (B)

189

7.2.5 Experiment-4
The file freshcola4.xls reports data for each individual on purchase likelihood for
the brand he/she was exposed to (reported as 1 for Bravo, 2 for Delight and 3 for
Cool) under the experiment, along with information on the store type where
interviewed (reported as 1 for drug store, 2 for supermarket, 3 for hypermarket and
4 for kirana store). The data need to be analysed to answer the above query.
Analysis Results (Fresh Cola: Experiment-4)

This table shows treatment (Store type
and Brands) representations and
sample size in each category
Between-Subjects Factors
Value Label

Store Type

Brands

N

1

Drug Store

60

2

Super Market

60

3

Hyper Market

60

4

Kirana Store

60

1

Bravo

80

2

Delight

80

3

Cool

80

This table shows mean value of
dependent variable in each cell (12
different cells) and total mean values

Descriptive Statistics
Dependent Variable: Likelihood of Purchase
Store Type

Drug Store

Super Market

Hyper Market

Kirana Store

Total

Brands

Mean

Std. Deviation

N

Bravo

90.75

5.711

20

Delight

38.45

5.491

20

Cool

19.60

5.862

20

Total

49.60

30.863

60

Bravo

63.20

5.415

20

Delight

89.45

4.696

20

Cool

41.45

4.489

20

Total

64.70

20.364

60

Bravo

39.70

4.680

20

Delight

61.90

4.364

20

Cool

90.15

6.072

20

Total

63.92

21.413

60

Bravo

21.00

4.801

20

Delight

18.85

5.060

20

Cool

55.05

6.778

20

Total

31.63

17.609

60

Bravo

53.66

26.766

80

Delight

52.16

26.978

80

Cool

51.56

26.412

80

Total

52.46

26.622

240